169
FXUS63 KOAX 251100
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
600 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- COOL CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
AND 70S, BEFORE A BRIEF WARMUP AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- RAIN AND STORMS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ON
ALREADY WET GROUND POSING A RISK OF FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE'LL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE SHOWERS RAMP UP AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OVERALL INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN WEAK AT BEST. SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.5"-2". LREF PROBS ESTIMATE
A 60-80% CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN 1.5" THROUGH SATURDAY AND A 35-
50% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 2.5" OF RAIN.
CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES COOL, IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WIND DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT OF
THE REGION. IF AFTERNOON SUN MANAGES TO PEAK THROUGH, HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REACH INTO THE MID 70S. HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PREVAILS,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER, IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, GIVING US
ANOTHER GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH
THE 70S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ON MONDAY, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. LONGER RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
POTENTIALLY SUPPLEMENTED BY MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE POLO OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. NBM PROBABILITIES MAINTAIN 60-75% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 1" OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, AND 35-50% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 2" MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE WELL-SATURATED SOIL
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY, ABUNDANT
RAINFALL, AREAS OF FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, THE GRADUAL
DUMPING OF RAIN OVER SEVERAL DAYS WILL WORK TO MITIGATE CONCERNS.
IN ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN, A MORE UNSTABLE AND SHEARED
AIR MASS COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AS
IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A 5-10% PROBABILITY IN MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE.
HOWEVER, EXACT TIMING DETAILS OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS REMAINS
QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING AHEAD, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM WILL PULL AWAY TO THE EAST. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE GFS IS BEGINNING TO COME ON BOARD WITH THE IDEA OF
PRECIPITATION AND COOLER WEATHER PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT THE MAJORITY OF TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. KOMA AS SEEN OCCASIONAL SCATTERING OF CLOUDS
AROUND 900 FT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS, AND GIVEN A FEW MODEL
TRENDS SUGGESTING THESE CLOUDS THINNING OUT A BIT, HAVE MOVED
BACK IFR CEILINGS TILL ABOUT 17Z. OTHERWISE, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AT TERMINALS. THE
BULK OF SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH SOME MIST LINGERING AROUND, BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP AFTER 20Z AND LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD (60-80% CHANCE). THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR MOST
TERMINALS, AND DROPS TO LIFR CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER,
PARTICULARLY AT KOFK. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME GUSTY AT KOFK
AFTER 15Z, BUT REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS AT THE REST OF THE SITES FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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