579
FXUS63 KOAX 252305
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
605 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- COOL CONDITIONS LINGER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S, BEFORE A BRIEF WARMUP AND DRY WEATHER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- RAIN AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL ON WET GROUND POSING A RISK OF FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
GUESS WHAT? ANOTHER RAINY DAY. WE'RE ON DAY 15 WITH RAIN
OBSERVED AT OMAHA/EPPLEY AND COUNTING. LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED
WAS IN MARCH OF 1960. WHAT'S CAUSING THIS YOU MAY ASK? WELL
WE'VE BEEN STAYING IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
THAT CONTINUES TO STREAM MOISTURE FROM THE WARM, ACTIVE WATERS
OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC KEEPING SKIES CLOUDY WITH PERIODS OF
RAINFALL. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE THE
STREAM OF MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
AREAS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ARE GETTING A
BIT OF A BREAK IN THE RAIN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE AND RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
AROUND 5-7PM THIS EVENING. MUCH OF OUR AREA WILL SEE ANYWHERE
FROM 0.5-1 INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
WE'LL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN THE RAIN MID-MORNING SATURDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THIS WARM FRONT WILL
BRING WARMER AIR UP FROM THE SOUTH, INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH
A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ROUND SATURDAY
EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ALSO WARM INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S
ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EVENING (AROUND 35KT OF 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR), WE DO HAVE FAIRLY INTERESTING LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE SO
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. DON'T
ANTICIPATE LARGE HAIL TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN DUE TO THE
SATURATED PROFILE, BUT WET MICROBURSTS OR A BRIEF TORNADO COULD
BE POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT I'D GENERALLY EXPECT
WARMING TEMPERATURES WITH THE PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. WITH ALL
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONLY WEAK CAA OUT OF THE NORTH, WE
MORE EXPECT WIDESPREAD FOG AND DRIZZLE SUNDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO LOW STRATUS THAT STRUGGLES TO CLEAR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NBM SHOWS THIS FAIRLY WELL, INCLUDING THE STRATUS
RE-SOLIDIFYING SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO MONDAY. CLOUD
COVER WILL LIMIT HOW WARM WE CAN GET WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IF WE DO SEE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CLEARING TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WE SEE OUR NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM
ARRIVE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH PUSHES
INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL STREAM MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM BOTH THE GULF AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
LLJ WHICH WOULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WE HAVE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MAYBE EVEN SOME RIVER FLOODING
AS THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THESE STORMS WILL PUT DOWN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. RIVERS WILL BE PRIMED, THOUGH MAYBE A BIT
IMPROVED DUE TO THE SUNDAY-MONDAY DRY PERIOD.
WE'LL BE WATCHING ANOTHER DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MIDWEEK NEXT
WEEK WITH SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING JUST NORTH SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA OR
NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE MORE ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY WHERE DETERMINISTIC LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS AT
LEAST TWO CONSECUTIVE 6-HR PERIODS OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW PUSHES IT NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER DRY PERIOD TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING IN SUGGESTS IT AGAIN WOULDN'T BE FOR
LONG. CPC GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING THROUGH THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH SOME RELIEF POSSIBLE
IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE WORSE WITH WESTERN EXTENT DURING THIS TIME.
IFR CEILINGS ARE PREDOMINANT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, INCLUDING
OFK AND LNK, WITH A COMBINATION OF IFR AND MVFR VISIBILITY.
FROM NEAR OMA INTO EASTERN IOWA, CEILINGS ARE MVFR WITH VFR
VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH IMPACTS REMAIN BRIEF WITH
THESE. A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF
THUNDER IS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS. THIS RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS AT
LNK AND OMA MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE AHEAD OF THIS RAIN. CONDITIONS
FALL AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES IN. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF FURTHER
REDUCTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ONCE RAIN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS AND IMPROVED VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED FOR MOST. IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, INCLUDING AT OFK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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