219
FXUS63 KOAX 260435
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1135 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RAIN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SATURDAY
EVENING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED.
- A BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 70S AND DRIER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS OUR
AREA. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. IT'LL BE A SOGGY START TO THE WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR MANY. TEMPERATURES HOLD STEADY IN THE 60S
DURING THIS TIME.
IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING RAIN, A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP, THOUGH SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD LINGER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO PERHAPS LOW 70S
BY MID-AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST. WHILE THE ASCENT FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED EAST OF THE AREA,
LINGERING ASCENT UNDER THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD HELP WITH
REDEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCE (50-70%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE RAIN GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, PATCHY
FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND IT.
FOG SHOULD LIFT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN
TO THE REGION. WHILE IT REMAINS MOSTLY CLOUDY, MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD SEE 70S FOR HIGHS BY THE AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER LARGELY
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY
MORNING. THE CLOUDS LINGER, BUT ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON IN THE 70S
CAN BE EXPECTED.
THE DRY WEATHER DOES NOT LAST LONG. THE REMNANTS OF POLO WILL
COMBINE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA HEADING
INTO THE WORK WEEK. BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ONCE
AGAIN. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MUCH
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW MOVING.
THAT SAID, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW QUICKLY THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REGION. THAT SAID, WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF
RECENT RAINFALL, FLASH FLOODING AND RISES IN AREA RIVERS MAY
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. OUTSIDE THE RETURN OF WET WEATHER,
COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S MAKE A RETURN AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND FOG ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MUCH OF THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. CONDITIONS
WILL GENERALLY BE WORSE WITH WESTERN EXTENT DURING THIS TIME.
IFR CEILINGS ARE PREDOMINANT ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA, INCLUDING
OFK AND LNK, WITH A COMBINATION OF IFR AND MVFR VISIBILITY.
FROM NEAR OMA INTO EASTERN IOWA, CEILINGS ARE MVFR WITH VFR
VISIBILITY AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS ARE ALSO
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH IMPACTS REMAIN BRIEF WITH
THESE. A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS WITH A LOW (10-30%) CHANCE OF
THUNDER IS LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM KANSAS. THIS RAIN WILL
OVERSPREAD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS AT
LNK AND OMA MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE AHEAD OF THIS RAIN. CONDITIONS
FALL AS THE BULK OF THE RAIN MOVES IN. IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED, THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF FURTHER
REDUCTIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. ONCE RAIN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, MVFR CEILINGS AND IMPROVED VISIBILITY
IS EXPECTED FOR MOST. IFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, INCLUDING AT OFK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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