338
FXUS63 KOAX 261859
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
159 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING
(20-50%).
- A BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 70S AND DRIER WEATHER ON SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS (90%+) RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE (30%+).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS REVEALED BY A PEEK AT WV IMAGERY. THE
DEEP NOR'EASTER SLIDING UP THE EAST COAST IS THE EASTERN PIECE
OF A OMEGA PATTERN IN THE H5 FLOW. THE PATTERN'S WESTERN TROF
HAS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS NADIR. IT'S PUSHING INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AND PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS THAT HAVE JUST SNUCK INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE OAX CWA.
AT THE SURFACE, WE'VE SPENT THE DAY MOSTLY WITHOUT THE BENEFIT
OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS HAVE LINGERED IN THE 60S WITH A FEW 70S
DEVELOPING MID-DAY AS CEILINGS HAVE BEGUN TO LIFT AND SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD BE APPRECIATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HAVE REDUCED POPS TODAY WITH 20-40% CHANCES REDEVELOPING THIS
EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES (50-60%) FOR AREAS NORTH OF
OMAHA/FREMONT AROUND 9/10PM. QPF SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.
OVERNIGHT, WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA WHERE WINDS ARE SLOWEST. FOG DEVELOPMENT LOOKS LIKE
A CERTAINTY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS TO SLIP BELOW A MILE AT TIMES. THIS
MOISTURE/FOG TALK WILL BECOME A FAMILIAR REFRAIN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK TO BE SURE.
SUNDAY
FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT ON SUNDAY MORNING, BUT DUE TO THE THIN
DECK OF STRATUS, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE A FEW RAYS OF
SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
DEPARTING WAVE. HIGHS SHOULD IMPROVE BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES WHEN
COMPARED TO TODAY'S HIGHS. SUNDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY ALTHOUGH
THERE'S A SMALL CHANCE OF DRIZZLE EARLY (10-20%).
MONDAY
WE'RE LIKELY TO BEGIN THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PROBABLY
PATCHY FOG. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30% POPS EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR
THE THREAT OF PATCHY DRIZZLE. DESPITE A FEW RAYS OF SUN, TEMPS
WILL LANGUISH BEHIND SEASONAL NORMS, PEAKING NEAR WHERE MY WIFE
SETS THE THERMOSTAT AT 70F.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND
QPF WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER SOGGY DAY IS
FORECAST. AHEAD OF A SAGGING COLD FRONT, WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY (>90%). MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AIDED BY (AND EVENTUALLY ACCOMPANIED BY)
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO. TUESDAY BRINGS A 10% CHANCE OF
PRECIP OF 1" OVER A 12 HOUR PERIOD (SREF). THE LREF INDICATES UP
TO A 35% CHANCE OF 1" OVER THE COURSE OF TUESDAY'S 24 HOURS.
LIKELY POPS LINGER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES FADE OVER
THE COURSE OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CURRENT QPF FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY ADDS UP TO 3" OR MORE FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS, NE TO HARLAN, IA. THAT EXPECTED PRECIP FALLS
OFF QUICKLY NORTH OF THERE. PWAT VALUES MID- WEEK PUSH CLOSE TO
2" AND ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
COLLABORATED WITH THE WPC THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT THE THREAT OF
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK. FLASH FLOODING MAY NOT BE AS
BIG OF A CONCERN AS RIVER FLOODING WILL BE. BY TUESDAY, THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN INCREASED INTO THE SLIGHT
CATEGORY WHICH REPRESENTS A 15% OR HIGHER CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING. THIS FORECASTER WOULD PUT THAT NUMBER CLOSER TO 30%
FROM THIS VANTAGE. FLOODING CHANCES STAY CLOSE TO 20-30% FOR
WEDNESDAY, TOO.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHEN EXACTLY POLO'S REMNANTS WILL
KICK NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS/NEBRASKA, BUT THURSDAY/FRIDAY IS A
SAFE BET. BEHIND THE SYSTEM, SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROVIDE A BREAK
IN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN. DESPITE THE WELCOMED RETURN OF PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DRY SIDEWALKS, TEMPS WILL FALL SHY OF THE LOW
70S AND SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
CEILINGS HAVE MOSTLY IMPROVED INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS, INCLUDING LNK, IMPROVING TO VFR OVER THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.
PRECIP WILL BE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ALONG THE KANSAS
STATE LINE. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ISSUANCE
(<40%). MOST AERODROMES WILL REMAIN DRY.
OTHERWISE, PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR VISIBILITY AT ALL LOCATIONS WITH LIFR CIGS
FORECAST AT KOFK. HAVE TRENDED OPTIMISTICALLY WITH THE
VISIBILITY FORECAST, EXPECT TO 50%+ CHANCE OF CIGS SLIPPING - AT
LEAST TEMPORARILY - LOWER THAN FORECAST. EXPECT TO SEE CLEARING
TO OCCUR SLOWLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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