268
FXUS63 KOAX 270541
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1241 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FOG, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG, IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- A BRIEF WARMUP INTO THE 70S IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SPOTTY SHOWERS (20% CHANCE) REMAIN POSSIBLE.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (90%+) RETURN LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4+
INCHES MAY BRING A FLOODING CONCERN TO AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING DEPICTS
BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, SANDWICHED BETWEEN
AN INCOMING WESTERN TROUGH AND NOR'EASTER. A FEW PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE ALLOWED AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EARLIER TODAY, THOUGH SATURATED SOILS AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION KEPT DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S, CREATING A RATHER
MUGGY DAY.
ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS A CORRIDOR OR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, CALMING WINDS.
AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED TO, GROUNDS REMAIN SATURATED WITH MOIST LOW-
LEVEL PROFILES, BRINGING THE FIRST OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
DAYS OF OVERNIGHT/MORNING FOG. WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS EAST-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS REMAIN THE CALMEST.
FOG AND LINGERING LOW-LEVEL STRATUS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP AND
IMPROVE AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY
BE LIMITED TO A FEW POCKETS, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. SCATTERED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON (15-20% POPS). ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIMITED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AGAIN INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING FOG IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE ON MONDAY, BEFORE A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE BRINGS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS (15-30% POPS). MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
INTO THE WORK WEEK, AN AMPLIFYING MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE BECOMING CUTOFF AND SLOWLY
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE REGION. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL PULL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GULF, WHILE THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO WILL ALSO GET SWEPT
UP INTO THE FLOW LATER IN THE WORK WEEK TO AID IN THE FAIRLY
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE PROFILES.
THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING THE FIRST ROUND OF 80-95% POPS.
THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL DRAPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHERN IOWA. ADDITIONAL PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND PULSES IN THE LLJ WILL SUPPORT MULTIPLE CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER, IN THE 1.70-2.00 RANGE (MAXIMIZED
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA). THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
RAIN ON ALREADY SATURATED SOIL WILL BRING A FLOODING CONCERN.
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE, THOUGH EXACT RAINFALL RATES AND
GAPS IN PRECIPITATION WILL DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONCERN
IS. THE LARGER CONCERN WILL LIKELY BE AREA RIVER AND STREAM
FLOODING.
THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. POPS OF 40-75%
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 2-4" RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, SUPPORT BY BOTH NBM AND WPC QPF GUIDANCE.
LIMITED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PULL TO THE EAST
NEXT WEEKEND, SWEEPING AWAY THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND CLOUD
COVER WITH IT. ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, KEEP COOLER HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. UNDER
THIS PATTERN, CPC'S 8-14 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK (VALID OCTOBER 4-10)
LEANS BELOW NORMAL (40-50% PROBABILITY).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AS A BAND OF LOW
LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS APPROACH TERMINALS. FOG HAS DEVELOPED JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE KOFK TERMINAL: EXPECT THE FOG TO OVERSPREAD
THE TERMINAL SOMETIME AFTER 08Z, EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN LIFR
CONDITIONS. EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD EXTEND OF FOG REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPING PRIMARILY LOW LEVEL
STRATUS OVER FOG IN THOSE AREAS. HAVE CONTINUED MENTIONS OF
MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH IFR CEILINGS FOR KOMA AND KLNK. THERE
IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (15-30%) FOR SOME POP UP SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED STORM THROUGH 12Z AT KOMA AND KLNK. CONDITIONS WILL BE
SLOW TO IMPROVE BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO 2,000-3,000 FT. MORE MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS
RETURN THOUGH AT THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS BECOME EAST NORTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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