069
FXUS63 KOAX 280522
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1222 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (90%+) RETURN
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY.
- FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4+ INCHES MAY BRING A FLOODING
CONCERN TO AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
IT WAS A BEAUTIFUL SUNDAY FOR MANY WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG REDEVELOP TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON MONDAY. OUTSIDE
OF A DAMP MORNING, THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S.
THE DRY WEATHER COMES TO A SWIFT END TUESDAY MORNING. A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS BEGINS TO INGEST RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO. AS THIS OCCURS, AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES
OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOES NOT MOVE
OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION, SENDING RAIN SOUTH, AND BRINGING AND
END TO THE RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (90%+
CHANCE) ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY FOR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S EACH DAY DUE TO CONTINUED
RAIN AND CLOUD COVER.
DIVING INTO THE DETAILS OF THIS RAINFALL, SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2-4"+ FOR THE AREA. THESE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
FUELED BY A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS MORE TYPICAL OF THE GULF COAST
RATHER THAN FALL IN THE PLAINS. DESPITE LIMITED INSTABILITY,
WARM RAIN PROCESSES WILL FAVOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. THAT SAID, THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE COINCIDING REGION OF
GREATEST RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS. IN EITHER CASE, A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP IF A
CORRIDOR OF REPEATED HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPS. ONE MITIGATING
FACTOR TO THIS SCENARIO IS THE DURATION AND PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY BE SHORT-LIVED MINIMIZING RAINFALL TOTALS
FOR ANY PARTICULAR AREA. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE CEILING FOR
THIS EVENT REMAINS HIGH AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD COME IN
HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED IN A HIGHER-END SCENARIO. THIS WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH CONVECTIVE
MODELS COMING INTO RANGE FOR THIS EVENT. WHILE THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT REMAINS MORE CONDITIONAL, RIVER FLOODING IS A MORE
LIKELY HAZARD. AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS HAVE ALREADY SEEN RISES
DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND MAY BE PRIMED FOR FLOODING WITH THIS
NEXT EVENT. IF YOU ARE LOCATED IN A FLOOD PLAIN, MONITOR YOUR
RIVER FORECAST CLOSELY AS FLOODING MAY BECOME A CONCERN NEXT
WEEK.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS THE AREA ON THURSDAY, A COOLER AND DRIER
FALL AIRMASS FILLS IN ACROSS THE PLAINS. EVEN THOUGH WE EXPECT
SUNSHINE TO RETURN TO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, COOL
TEMPERATURES LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE CAN EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S TO UPPER 40S. THESE
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE SOME OF THE COOLEST SINCE LATE SPRING.
WHILE SIGNIFICANT, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE TOO WARM FOR ANY FROST
POTENTIAL AND A DELAYED FIRST FROST COMPARED TO AVERAGE
CONTINUES FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
A BAND OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS IS OBSERVED OVER MOST OF KOFK AND
KOMA WITH CEILINGS AROUND 900 TO 2,000 FT. SHOULD SEE MORE
STRATUS DEVELOP AND ENTER THE KLNK VICINITY IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. CEILINGS THEN DETERIORATE TO IFR AFTER 08Z. HAVE DELAYED
THE ARRIVAL OF IFR CEILINGS AT KOFK AND KLNK BY A FEW HOURS
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. KOFK WILL SEE THE WORST OF THE
IMPACTS, AND EVEN SOME LIFR CEILINGS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR FOG AT TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING RESULTING IN MVFR
VISIBILITIES. VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, WHILE CEILINGS
DON'T LIFT TO MVFR UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILS CLOSER TO
00Z WITH CLOUDS AT AROUND 4,000 FT. WINDS REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS
FOR THE DURATION OF THE CYCLE AND FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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