036
FXUS63 KOAX 010546
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF PROLONGED RAINFALL BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
OR TWO WHICH MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF TORNADO
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- EXPECT DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS WITH FAIRLY SATURATED
SOIL. THE REMNANTS OF WHAT USED TO BE HURRICANE POLO WILL CONTINUE
TO TAP INTO WARM, MOIST GULF AIR AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH PWAT VALUES OF
1.8"+ AND A SKINNY SOUNDING, EXPECT EFFICIENT RAINFALL OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW. RECENT TRENDS IN MODELS HAVE SHOWN THE MAIN AREA OF
RAINFALL SHIFTING NORTH, CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR. BY THE TIME
ALL IS SAID AND DONE WITH THE RAINFALL, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT 2-4"
FOR MANY AREAS AND LOCALIZED 5"+ IN OTHER AREAS. FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, AS AS A RESULT, THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED
OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, WITH A BOUNDARY CUTTING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND DECENT SHEAR, CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPIN
UP OR TWO.
FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO MISSOURI AND WE GET A MUCH NEEDED
BREAK FROM THE RAIN. SKIES CLEAR OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
COOLER TEMPERATURES (60S) WILL BE EXPECTED FOR HIGHS.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK AS WE COME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN. WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS FINALLY MOVED OUT FROM THE
KOMA AND KLNK TERMINALS THIS MORNING LEAVING BEHIND CONTINUED
IFR STRATUS. WILL LIKELY SEE PERSISTENT -SHRA ACTIVITY AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS BEFORE
ACTIVITY STARTS TO WIND DOWN. CEILINGS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO LIFT
TO MVFR CLOSER TO 12Z, THEN LIFT TO VFR THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 20 TO 25 KTS BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN SUBSIDING BY 00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ044-045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-079-080-
090-091.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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