170
FXUS63 KOAX 020355
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1055 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- EXPECT DRY WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
MUCH QUIETER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS CLIPPING EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CONTINUED TO PASS THROUGH KS. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH THE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TIED TO THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH SLOWLY, BUT
SURELY EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOME LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS SD
INTO NORTHERN NE WERE TRYING TO FILL IN BEHIND THEM, BUT WERE
GENERALLY DISSIPATING AS THEY PUSHED FARTHER SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, EXPECTING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT. GIVEN HOW WET WE ARE, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES, BUT GUIDANCE ISN'T
SHOWING MUCH OF ANYTHING, OWING TO DECENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT
AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. SO IF ANYTHING DOES DEVELOP, IT WOULD
LIKELY BE PRETTY PATCHY AND/OR SHALLOW.
THE OTHER NEWS IN THE SHORT TERM IS CONTINUED FLOODING ON AREA
RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS. MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER HAVE OR ARE CLOSE TO CRESTING. WITH NO ADDITIONAL
RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST, CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS SHOULD
BE IN GOOD SHAPE, WITH MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUING.
OTHERWISE, IT'S LOOKING LIKE A PRETTY QUIET NEXT 7 DAYS AS WE
REMAIN UNDER ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE'LL SEE SEVERAL
FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD, STARTING WITH A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A WARM FRONT AROUND TUESDAY, THEN
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SAID FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL BE DRY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING WITH THE COLD FRONT TOWARD MID-WEEK,
THOUGH A VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL KEEP US DRY,
WITH CHANCES REMAINING UNDER 10%. DESPITE THE FRONTS,
TEMPERATURES WON'T FLUCTUATE A WHOLE LOT. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S THROUGH MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY 70S TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DECREASING MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS A FEW CLOUDS AROUND
8000-10000 FT AGL ON FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GO FROM NORTHERLY TO
EASTERLY, GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS, WITH OFK SEEING SOME
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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