483
FXUS63 KOAX 061700
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- DRY, SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 955 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
QUIET PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE LLJ
CONTINUES TO STREAM IN DRY AIR FROM WEST TEXAS/NEW MEXICO. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WON'T DO MUCH MORE THAN
SLIGHTLY SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE'LL SEE
WARMER AIR BUILD IN BEHIND THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE LOW 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT
ONLY ONE DAY OF THIS WARMER WEATHER THOUGH AS A DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING
BACK NORTHERLY WINDS AND MILDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
PEAK IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S.
A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SETS IN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID
70S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVES MAY BRING OCCASIONAL
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS BUT DRY LOWER-LEVELS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES
LOW. NEXT LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHEN A WARM FRONT MAY BRING IN SOME
LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT MAY NOT BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AMOUNT.
DRY AIR COULD KEEP MUCH FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST FINALLY MOVES THROUGH OVER THE
REESTABLISHING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. A WETTER
PATTERN LOOKS TO SET BACK UP NEXT WEEK, CORROBORATED BY THE
CPC'S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION
OF THE TAF CYCLE. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FROM MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KTQE
TO KBIE FROM 06 TO 13Z. WHILE CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPING AT
THE KOMA TERMINAL REMAINS LOW WITH THIS ISSUANCE (10-20%), HAVE
SIGNALED POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FROM 10Z-13Z BUT KEPT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY IN VFR. SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 12 KTS OR
LESS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER 06Z. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BUT STILL UNDER 12 KTS BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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