610
FXUS63 KOAX 071729
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1229 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK, LOW 20-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND MAY LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH BRINGING IN COOLER AIR COUPLED WITH GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FOG MAINLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ELSEWHERE SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY SOON AFTER
SUNRISE.
LOOKING AT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WE HAVE BROAD RIDGING OVER
THE WEST COAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THROUGH THE WEEK WE SEE RIDGING GRADUALLY CREEP
EASTWARD, MOSTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOWER DOWN WE SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS
TODAY WITH A CANADIAN AIR MASS BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN ACROSS
THE REGION. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THAN YESTERDAY, ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
(FAR SOUTH). THIS COOLING TREND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ONLY GET INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE BEST SEEN AT H850 MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH INCREASED WAA ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS BRINGS IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT-EARLY
FRIDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE NOSE OF THE LLJ
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN NE NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA.
DESPITE THE FORCING, THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE CAN ADVECT IN. WHILE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS, MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL DRY ESPECIALLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. IT COULD END UP BEING A SCENARIO FOR MORE VIRGA
WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES/BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WE SEE A RAPIDLY DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST AMPLIFYING A JET STREAK OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS WE SEE A BROAD REGION OF SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS
COMBINED WITH A SUBSTANTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 850-MB
JET ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 MPH WINDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS AGRICULTURAL FIELDS HAVE DRIED OUT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHICH DIDN'T SEE AS MUCH
RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK.
CONFIDENCE GREATLY DECREASES IN THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS WE LIKELY SEE A VERY BAROCLINIC, ACTIVE
PATTERN SET UP ACROSS THE CONUS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORT THE
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES STARTING MONDAY OR TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING
AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW PIECES OF
GUIDANCE HINT AT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS AGAIN, BUT CHANCES FOR IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAIN BELOW
30 PERCENT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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