838
FXUS63 KOAX 071916
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
216 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT-
FRIDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND MAY LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT DETAILS ON EXACT TIMING STILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VERY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN AND LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. DESPITE NORTHERLY
WINDS, TEMPERATURES AS OF 2 PM WERE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
FOR TONIGHT, A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT AT SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WE LOOK TO HAVE A DECENTLY DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER,
THOUGH SPEEDS ALOFT START TO PICK UP TOWARD 4 AM, SO THINK ANY
FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE PRETTY PATCHY AND CONFINED TO
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW- LYING AREAS.
AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS ON THURSDAY LOOK QUIET, THOUGH A SURFACE
LOW WILL BE SPINNING UP EAST OF THE ROCKIES, HELPING TO DRAG A WARM
FRONT INTO NORTHEAST NE/WEST-CENTRAL IA BY THE AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
POINTING TOWARD THE FRONT SUGGEST WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LOW END
PRECIP CHANCES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (20-30%). THAT SAID, MOST CAMS
OFFER RELATIVELY DRY SOLUTIONS, KEEPING THINGS SPOTTY OR NOT
DEVELOPING ANY PRECIP AT ALL (AT LEAST THROUGH 7 AM). MODEL
SOUNDINGS (EVEN MODELS THAT HAVE PRECIP) ALSO SHOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AND A GENERAL STRUGGLE TO SATURATE. THEREFORE,
TEND TO AGREE WITH MOST CAMS THAT THINGS WILL BE PRETTY SPOTTY AND
LIGHT IN OUR AREA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO STRENGTHENING WINDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW
MOVING ACROSS MT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
WINDIEST DAY WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING 40+ KTS AT THE TOP OF THE
MIXED LAYER, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST NE. AS IT STANDS, FORECASTING
35-45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ALSO DROPPED DEWPOINTS A
BIT BASED ON GUIDANCE TENDING BE TOO HIGH AS OF LATE. THIS RESULTS
IN RH VALUES DIPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S IN PARTS OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT, WE MAY END UP WITH SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THOUGH
FUELS OUTSIDE OF NORTHEAST NE GENERALLY REMAIN WET AND/OR GREEN. THE
MAIN CONCERN WOULD LIKELY BE IN AGRICULTURAL FIELDS AS HARVEST
BEGINS. PRACTICE GOOD FIRE SAFETY!
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLIDING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE RIDGE, BUT
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IT REMAINS TO OUR NORTH.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
EXACT TIMING OF HOW THINGS PAN OUT, BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A
CUTOFF LOW SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN CA WHILE A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS THAT SOME OF THAT
TROPICAL MOISTURE MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD NE AND IA ONCE AGAIN, THOUGH
STILL LOTS OF SPREAD IN HOW FAR WEST OR EAST IT IS, AS WELL AS WHEN
ASSOCIATED PRECIP WOULD HAPPEN. CURRENTLY, CHANCES REALLY START TO
INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO
WORK OUT. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN PRECIP TIMING, THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE. THAT SAID, HIGHS IN THE 80S
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD FALL AT LEAST A DECENT AMOUNT ONCE THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH 60S AND/OR 70S EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHERLY INTO THIS EVENING
AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW PIECES OF
GUIDANCE HINT AT FOG DEVELOPMENT IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING
AREAS AGAIN, BUT CHANCES FOR IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAIN BELOW
30 PERCENT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page