839
FXUS63 KOAX 081025
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
525 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA THURSDAY NIGHT-
EARLY FRIDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT DETAILS ON EXACT TIMING STILL NEED TO BE WORKED
OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN SHOWS BROAD RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT
FOR FOG TO FORM, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE PATCHY FOG IN LOW-LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS DEVELOP, BURNING OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
THURSDAY WE'RE LOOKING AT ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE AFTERNOON.
A WEAK DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BRING A
WARM FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. 00Z CAMS SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THAT WARM FRONT NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, BUT LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
ANY PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. GOOD ENOUGH FOR A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THOUGH.
INCREASED WARM-AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK UP INTO THE MID 80S. WITH RECENT TRENDS FOR THE NBM BEING A
BIT LOW, WE COULD POTENTIALLY APPROACH RECORDS WHICH ARE 88 FOR
FRIDAY AND 91 FOR SATURDAY AT OMAHA (90 FRIDAY AND 91 SATURDAY
FOR LINCOLN).
SATURDAY WE SEE A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA PUSH INTO THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, STEEPENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DOWN TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL REALLY RAMP UP WINDS ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH WINDS GUSTING 35-45 MPH EXPECTED, STRONGEST OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE WINDS WILL BE SOURCING AIR FROM THE
DRIER AREAS OF NEW MEXICO, WEST TEXAS AND WESTERN KANSAS. DRY,
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE DRIER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA MAY CREATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS THE LOW IN CANADA BREAKS DOWN AS IT GETS FORCED OVERTOP THE
RIDGE.
LOOKING WEST TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND WE SEE A DEEP
TROUGH SLIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST SETTING UP A FAIRLY ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK. RIDGING PUSHING
UP OUT OF MEXICO INTO TEXAS WILL SERVE TO INTENSIFY THE UPPER-
LEVEL JET SPANNING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST INTO
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS BAROCLINIC PATTERN DECREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THE FINE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK,
BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOW A COLD FRONT BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN MONDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS PRIME FOR A PROTOTYPICAL
FALL-LIKE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
LATER NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GETS
REABSORBED BACK INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MOVING IN THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. CERTAINLY A TIME
PERIOD TO WATCH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY FOG
IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING, GENERALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-
LYING AREAS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTS AT THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW (10% CHANCE). OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
CALM AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY PULLING TO
SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH A FEW 12-14 KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. MID- AND HIGH- LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...WOOD
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