280
FXUS63 KOAX 090459
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1159 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF A COUPLE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CLIPPING NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT.
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED. SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY.
- A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA, THUS FAR, STAYING OUT OF THE OAX CWA. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH SOME BRINGING IN
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, WHILE OTHERS HAVE THE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA WILL WANE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS, SO I WENT WITH MORE OF A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS, PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS ALONG OUR EASTERN CWA.
OVERNIGHT, THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT; HOWEVER, MOST AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE FOG
DEVELOP. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
SATURDAY, BRINGS A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GREAT PLAINS COMING UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10-20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION, DRIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30-40MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE 20-40% RANGE. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA IN AREAS
THAT WERE NOT AFFECTED BY THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING EVENT.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER, TOPPING OUT PRIMARILY IN THE MID-80S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 60S.
MONDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST: A COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA ON MONDAY, USHERING IN SOME COOLER
AIR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE 80S AHEAD OF
IT. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S FOR HIGHS.
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KLNK AND KOMA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LITTLE PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK
OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, SO THIS HAS BEEN OMITTED
FROM PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR NOW. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 06Z AT KLNK AND KOMA, PERSISTING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
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