320
FXUS63 KOAX 091036
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
536 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH WIDESPREAD 80S EXPECTED.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN
NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY.
- A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA, THUS FAR, STAYING OUT OF THE OAX CWA. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CLIPPING THE
NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH SOME BRINGING IN
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, WHILE OTHERS HAVE THE STORM POTENTIAL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. FAIRLY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER OUR
AREA WILL WANE OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS, SO I WENT WITH MORE OF A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS, PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STORMS ALONG OUR EASTERN CWA.
OVERNIGHT, THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY FOG IN LOW-LYING AREAS NORTH
OF THE FRONT; HOWEVER, MOST AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE FOG
DEVELOP. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL
INTO THE 80S.
SATURDAY, BRINGS A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN. AN UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE GREAT PLAINS COMING UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 10-20 MPH FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. SOUTH WINDS WILL HELP BRING WARMER AIR INTO
THE REGION, DRIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30-40MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE 20-40% RANGE. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA IN AREAS
THAT WERE NOT AFFECTED BY THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING EVENT.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER, TOPPING OUT PRIMARILY IN THE MID-80S. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE 60S.
MONDAY INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST: A COLD FRONT SLIPS THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA ON MONDAY, USHERING IN SOME COOLER
AIR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE 80S AHEAD OF
IT. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, EXPECT WIDESPREAD 70S FOR HIGHS.
ISOLATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING
MONDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LINGERING LLWS
WILL WIND DOWN OUT AT KOMA AND KLNK WITH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, AT 10-15 KTS, WITH
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS AT KLNK AND KOFK AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.
LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING AT ALL
THREE TAF SITES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...KG
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