931
FXUS63 KOAX 100504
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1204 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD
80S AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 30-40+ MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- A COOLING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES BY MID-WEEK, CONTINUING THE COOLING TREND, AND THE
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE BIG STORY IN THE WEATHER WORLD TONIGHT IS THE LANDFALL OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS ON FLORIDA'S GULF COAST. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DISPLACED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
OVERT TROPICAL ACTION IN THE GULF.
THE THERMAL RIDGE WAS WEST OF THE AREA TODAY AND WE STILL
MANAGED RECORD HIGHS AT OMAHA (91) AND LINCOLN (92). SOUTHERLY
SFC WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SLACKEN A BIT WITH DIURNAL DECOUPLING.
STILL, WINDS OF 5-10 KTS SHOULD HELP HOLD TEMPS IN THE 60S. VWPS
AT OAX AND EAX HAVE YET TO SHOW ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS PICKING
UP, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS WILL HAPPEN AFTER MIDNIGHT
AS A LLJ DEVELOPS. GUSTS OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL BE FOUND JUST
1-2KFT ABOVE THE SFC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON SATURDAY, HELPING TO MIX
STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC. GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE FORECAST FOR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
WINDS SHOULD HELP MIX DRIER AIR TO THE SFC LEADING TO HEIGHTENED
FIRE DANGER - ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE PLATTE RIVER WHERE
SATELLITES CORROBORATE DRIER SOILS. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL
AS FAR AS 25-35%. IT'S NOT QUITE RED FLAG WARNING TIME, BUT IT
ISN'T FAR OFF CONSIDERING THE DRYING FUELS. PLEASE BE CAREFUL
WITH IGNITION SOURCES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY SNEAK INTO THE LOWER-90S IN AT LEAST THE
METRO AREAS AND WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS FOR A SECOND CONSECUTIVE
DAY. SOME STANDING RECORDS (LNK/OLU/TQE/OFK) WERE JUST SET/TIED
IN 2024. TEMPS REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER LLJ DEVELOPS
JUST OFF THE SFC LEAVING WINDS DOWN HERE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
10-15 MPH.
SUNDAY
MAX TEMPS SOAR INTO THE 80S ONE MORE TIME ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS
AND THE DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROF BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
SLICING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL SWEEP
EAST, GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATTITUDE JET. WE WILL SEE NO
PRECIP FROM ITS REMNANTS.
NEXT WEEK
MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LATITUDE. LOCATIONS WITHIN A
BIKE RIDE OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SETTLE FOR LOW-70S WHILE 90F IS
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO MISSOURI. WINDS WILL COME OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
RACHEL ARE LIKELY TO PASS NORTH OF THE AREA BY A STATE OR TWO.
HIGH TEMPS WILL SLIP INTO THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND MAY EVEN FALL
A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE WEEK'S DURATION AS HEIGHTS FALL AND
CLOUDS BECOME WIDESPREAD.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WAITS
FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE SIMON ON WEDNESDAY.
IT'S CURRENTLY SPINNING JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND
WILL BE SWEPT NORTHEAST AS THE TROF EJECTS EAST. CURRENT
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (NBM) SUGGESTS A 25-50% CHANCE OF 1" OF RAIN
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES ON WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES ARE SOUTHEAST OF
OMAHA.
THIS FORECAST OFFERS A TASTE OF SUMMER THIS WEEKEND BEFORE COOLER
AND WETTER WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. 40-50 KTS OF
SOUTHERLY LLWS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z, NEAR FL020. CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND OUT OF THE SOUTH AT SPEEDS
OF 12-15KTS, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30-40 KTS. SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, BUT
LLWS WILL RAMP BACK UP AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...KG
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