725
FXUS63 KOAX 112319
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S.
- OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES BY MID-WEEK, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MARKING THE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE
FORECAST.
- FALL-LIKE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM AND SUMMER-LIKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT PLAINS. THICK HIGH
CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF MIXING THAT CAN BE ACHIEVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS KEEPS
WIND SPEEDS AND TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN THEY MIGHT HAVE OTHERWISE
BEEN. THAT SAID, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOW 90S WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.
AS PART OF THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER
WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. THIS FEATURE HELPS A COLD FRONT
SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS FRONT STALLS NOT TOO
FAR INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE RETURN KEEPS OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY. DAYTIME HEATING
MAY EVEN LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH SLIGHTLY. AS WARM, MOIST
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, EXPECTED ONE LAST DAY OF
WIDESPREAD 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS REDEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH MOST OF
THE REGION IN RESPONSE. THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY
ONCE AGAIN OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THOUGH. WARM
ADVECTION AND WEAK ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM MAY HELP
TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT DURING THIS TIME. THAT
SAID, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
KEEPS PRECIPITATION LIGHT.
BY TUESDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS
EAST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, REMNANTS OF
SIMON ARE FORECAST TO EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA. THESE
FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THE FRONT MOSTLY THROUGH THE AREA, INITIAL RAIN
CHANCES MAY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING WITH A FEW MODELS LIFTING THE FRONT
BACK NORTH TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. IN THIS EVENT,
GREATER RAIN CHANCES AND EVEN SOME SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE.
IN EITHER CASE, AS THE UPPER-LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK EAST,
EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES COOL SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THIS
TIME DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT,
RAIN, AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
ON TUESDAY FALL INTO THE MID 60S BY THURSDAY.
FALL-LIKE WEATHER IS SET TO RETURN BY WEEK'S END INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS. THIS BRINGS MUCH COOLER AIR ALONG WITH IT. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW COLD TEMPERATURES MAY GET, BUT WE
CAN ANTICIPATE 50S AND 60S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND 40S TO EVEN 30S
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. IF TRENDS BECOME EVEN COLDER, THERE MAY BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FROST OR FREEZE THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. LINGERING SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT OFK
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL
MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS. A FRONT WILL WORK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND IT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WIND SHIFT WILL HOLD OFF
AT OMA/LNK UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CA
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