929
FXUS63 KOAX 120404
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1104 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (5 TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE), BUT HIGHER CHANCES REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES RETURN BY WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S INTO THE WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL DIP
INTO THE 30S, WITH SOME FROST POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS IN CONTROL THIS EVENING, GIVING US
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST NE, STRETCHING FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY
TO NORFOLK TO ALBION AS OF 11 PM. IT'S NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH
MORE PROGRESS OVERNIGHT, SO NORTH OF THAT LINE, EXPECT LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, AND SOUTH OF THAT LINE, EXPECT LOWS RIGHT
AROUND 70.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY EDGE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, PUSHING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA BY THE
EVENING. AREAS THAT REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOST OF THE DAY
WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S (LIKELY
BREAKING RECORDS), WHILE AREAS BEHIND WILL BE IN THE 70S AND
80S. BY THE EVENING, GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL
SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, BUT ALSO A LITTLE
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, SO THINK THINGS WILL BE SPOTTY, BUT
WOULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. MAINTAINING A 20%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE NE/KS/IA/MO BORDER AREA ON
TUESDAY, THOUGH STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE ON
EXACTLY WHERE IT SETS UP (COULD BE OVER OUR AREA OR COULD BE TO
THE SOUTH). THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEAST CO AND WESTERN KS AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY
COMING FROM BOTH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND FROM HURRICANE SIMON OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO ARRIVES IN
THE AREA. THE ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY WILL LEAD TO A DECENTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE PLENTY STRONG TO YIELD A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT,
THOUGH WITH LARGELY BOUNDARY-PARALLEL SHEAR, STORMS COULD BE A
LITTLE MESSY. FINALLY, WITH AT LEAST SOME TROPICAL INFLUENCE,
EXPECT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 1.75 INCHES, SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLOODING WHEREVER THE
PRIMARY RAIN BAND SETS UP. AGAIN, THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE THE STORMS DEVELOP. MANY CAMS (E.G. 12.00Z HRRR) KEEP
THINGS LARGELY SOUTH OF OUR AREA, THOUGH A FEW REFS MEMBERS
WOULD SUGGEST AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF A FAIRBURY TO NEBRASKA
CITY TO RED OAK LINE WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT (UP TO 15% CHANCE).
PRECIP LOOKS TO EXPAND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY LATER TUESDAY
EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT PICKS UP. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND LAST INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO OUR WEST MOVES IN. STILL A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON HOW EXACTLY THAT SYSTEM EVOLVES,
MAINLY IMPACTING HOW LONG RAIN LINGERS INTO THURSDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH VERY QUICKLY OR WE GET
A STRONG PUNCH OF DRY AIR AND MOST OF THURSDAY IS DRY. OTHER
SOLUTIONS LINGER A DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. FOR NOW, PRECIP CHANCES ARE IN THE 60-80%
RANGE THROUGH NOON AND DROP TO AROUND 20-30% AFTER.
WE'LL DRY OUT AFTER THAT AS ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHILE COOL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK STEADILY DECREASE, WITH WIDESPREAD 60S TO LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY 50S AND LOWER 60S FRIDAY. THE
COLDEST NIGHT WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
30S. LATEST GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD LOWER PROBABILITIES FOR
A TRUE FREEZE (20-30% CHANCE OF GETTING BELOW 32 DEGREES) AS THE
TROUGH OUT OF CANADA IS TRACKING FARTHER EAST, BUT SOME PATCHY
FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE THAT NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. LINGERING SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN
THE PERIOD, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS AT OFK
OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL
MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KTS. A FRONT WILL WORK
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND IT. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WIND SHIFT WILL HOLD OFF
AT OMA/LNK UNTIL AFTER 00Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
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