502
FXUS63 KOAX 121825
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
125 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES HANG ON ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S AND EVEN LOW 90S.
- A COLD FRONT BEGINS A COOLING TREND THIS EVENING. FALL-LIKE
WEATHER RETURNS BY MID-WEEK AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A SHALLOW COLD AIRMASS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS HAS SLOWLY CREPT INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE SOARING THROUGH THE 80S TO EVEN LOW 90S OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IT IS EXPECTED THAT MUCH OF THE AREA
WILL EXPERIENCE ONE MORE DAY OF UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S HEAT
BEFORE A COOLING TREND TAKES OVER ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AS A LARGE, UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN THIS EVENING, WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO. THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE AND THE CESSATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING HELPS PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES FILL IN, RANGING FROM THE
40S OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH MODEST WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE FRONT. THIS THREAT
IS LOW WITH ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ANTICIPATED.
AS THE UPPER-LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, SURFACE TROUGHING KEEPS THE COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY. WHILE PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA MAY WARM INTO THE 80S JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT, MOST OF THE AREA REMAINS MUCH COOLER IN THE 60S TO
MID-70S. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A LEADING WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF RACHEL WILL HELP TO INITIATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
STALLED FRONT. A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EXIST, BUT THE BULK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH, AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THAT SAID, AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUST OR LARGE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NEAR THE FRONT, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
BY MID-WEEK, COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FULLY SETTLE INTO
THE ENTIRE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, THE UPPER-LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW MOVES OVERHEAD
BEFORE WE DRY OUT AS EVERYTHING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE MODEST FOR MOST WITH LESS THAN 0.5
INCH FOR MANY. A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY MAY RECEIVE
UPWARDS OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
FRIDAY SEES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACH THE 50S WITH THE BRUNT OF THE COLD
AIRMASS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES DROP OUT SATURDAY MORNING AS
30S APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE AREA. A POTENTIAL FIRST FROST IS ON
THE TABLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK
INTO THE 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 70S BEGINNING TO RETURN
NEXT WEEK. THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET AND DRY OTHERWISE. ENJOY
THE FALL-LIKE WEATHER!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
IFR CEILINGS BEHIND A COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THESE CEILINGS MAY APPROACH OFK, BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE TERMINAL. IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
ERODE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AT OFK BEHIND THE FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MARCHES SOUTH. CURRENT TIMING HAS THIS
WIND SHIFT REACH OMA AND LNK AROUND 22Z. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY
AND LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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