758
FXUS63 KOAX 132319
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO NEBRASKA CITY TO RED OAK,
IA AFTER 6 PM. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES (80 TO 90%) MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CLEARS BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK
REMAINING DRY. MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
US, WHILE A 558DAM CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST EAST OF
CALIFORNIA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WE ARE LOCATED BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. AT THE SFC, A
CHANNEL OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SEEN EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHILE TO THE SOUTHWEST, A SFC LOW HAS SPUN UP IN
WESTERN KANSAS. YESTERDAY'S FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM THAT FEATURE
TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.
WE'LL SEE STRATUS LINGER FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE HIGH TRAPS IT. HIGHS REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WILL SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
RIDE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARD THE AREA. WHILE
THE PRIMARY SFC FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED SOUTH OF THE AREA, SHOULD
SEE THE H8 FRONT BE DISPLACED A BIT MORE NORTHWARD WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY, SHOULD SEE SOME INSTABILITY POOL
UP RANGING FROM 500 TO 1,000 J/KG OF MUCAPE. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 60
KTS PROVIDED BY AN APPROACHING H5 JET MAX SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
IMPETUS FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION.
FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY
REMAINING ROOTED ALOFT NEAR OR JUST ABOVE H8 WITH SIGNIFICANT
CAPPING NEAR THE SFC. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS
FARTHER WEAK WITH NORTHWARD EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA, SO
WILL LIKELY NEED SOME ELEMENT OF FORCING NEAR THE BOUNDARY TO
FORCE ANY PARCELS UP. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST
KANSAS BORDER CLOSER TO 23Z, LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH
ANY STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL (H7 TO H5 LAPSE RATES REMAIN NEAR
7 C/KM), STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE A BIT AFTER 07 OR 08Z WITH JUST SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS REMAIN AT 30 TO
50% DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO NEBRASKA CITY TO RED
OAK, IA.
SHOULD SEE THE SFC HIGH INCH CLOSER TOWARD THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS FOR
MOST AREAS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY REACH THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH CLOUDS
LINGERING. BY THE EVENING HOURS, WILL START TO SEE THE CLOSED 566DAM
LOW EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG H7-H7
QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION, AND WITH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT POINTING TOWARD THE GENERAL VICINITY, WILL HAVE A GOOD
CHANCE FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT (60-80% CHANCE AREAWIDE).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING AS CHANCES REMAIN AT 80 TO
90%. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE TOTALS OF A HALF INCH, WHILE A FEW
SPOTS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. PWATS STILL APPEAR TO BE ON THE HIGHER END OF
CLIMATOLOGY, WITH GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS AT
OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF KOAX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR THAT
DATE. RAIN GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY
EVENING AS THE H5 DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST AND GETS ABSORBED INTO A
STRONG H5 WAVE THAT EJECTS FROM SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY
AS H5 RIDGING MOVES IN. EXPECT A COOL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S BEFORE A WARM UP TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S OCCURS FOR THE
WEEKEND. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE A STRONG SFC HIGH
MOVE OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS REGION, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES
AND ALLOWING US TO COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 30S, SO DON'T BE
SURPRISED IF YOU SEE SOME FROST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER
POTENTIAL WAVE APPROACHING THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
BUT WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, THE NBM SUGGESTS DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINING IN PLACE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING
AND BREAKING INTO VFR TERRITORY. THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MOST BY 10PM. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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