840
FXUS63 KOAX 140441
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1141 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (80 TO 90%) MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CLEARS BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK
REMAINING DRY.
- MAY SEE SOME AREAS OF FROST FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON ON
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
HAVE BEEN MONITORING THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS EVENING. VERY LITTLE
CONVECTION WAS FOUND IN THE 402 AREA CODE EARLY THIS EVENING AND
WE'VE BEEN DRY FOR A FEW HOURS NOW AS THE ACTION IS NOW ENTIRELY
ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. EARLIER
NEBRASKA ACTION WAS IN THE VICINITY OF AN 850MB FRONT.
FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN FROM THE PACIFIC AS HURRICANE SIMON CONTINUES TO SPIN
JUST WEST OF SINALOA, MX. WITH A 995DAM RIDGE SPINNING OVER THE
GULF OF AMERICA AND A 555DAM UPPER LOW CUT OFF OVER THE VEGAS
AREA, STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS POINTED THAT SOURCE OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DIRECTLY AT THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THE FRONT SOUTH OF HERE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF HERE OVERNIGHT, SO
HAVE REMOVED ALL BUT MINIMAL POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN STATE
LINES.
WEDNESDAY
WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN DRY AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE DAY. UNDER THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS WILL LANGUISH IN
THE 60S. AS THE H5 LOW BEGINS TO EJECT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. BY
MIDNIGHT, THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN WITH ODDS CLIMBING OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY
RAIN CHANCES PLATEAU AROUND 90% BETWEEN 5AM AND 9AM FOR THE
ENTIRETY OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT THEY'LL BEGIN TO FADE FROM
WEST TO EAST, ALTHOUGH THE DEFORMATION ZONE MAY KEEP
LIGHT/SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON. QPF FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.7". NBM AND HREF PROBABILITIES
STILL SUGGEST A 30-50% CHANCE OF 1" OF RAIN FOR ALL. DESPITE THE
SOGGY START TO THE MONTH, CREEKS/STREAMS/LAWNS SHOULD HANDLE
THE MOISTURE JUST FINE AT THE RATE AND TOTALS CURRENTLY
FORECAST (FFG). SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH 500-1000 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE EXPECTED. THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY SUNSET
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND BEGINS TO FILL AND
PHASE WITH THE TROF PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
!
QUICK NORTHERLY SFC FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH ON
FRIDAY BRINGS THE COOLEST WEATHER IN MONTHS (MAY 20) TO THE
FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE
PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES, TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT THE 60F MARK.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CROSSES EASTERN NEBRASKA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT LEAVING WINDS TO FIZZLE AND TEMPS TO PLUMMET. CURRENT NBM
GUIDANCE HAS SATURDAY MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE FREEZING
MARK IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY TO MID-30S. FROST AND OR THE
SEASON'S FIRST FREEZE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. ODDS FOR
FALLING BELOW FREEZING RUN FROM 19% AT OMAHA TO 41% NEAR
COLUMBUS (NBM). PATCHY FROST IS NEARLY INEVITABLE (96%) ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO A TALLY OF THE NBM ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS. BARRING A DRAMATIC CHANGE, THE SEASON'S FIRST FROST
ADVISORY MAY BE ON THE HORIZON.
A WEAKENING RIDGE PASSES OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID- TO UPPER-60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING
AND BREAKING INTO VFR TERRITORY. THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MOST BY 10PM. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY COMPONENT
OF WIND DEVELOPING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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