899
FXUS63 KOAX 142327
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER
AREA. WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES (80 TO 90%) MOVE IN LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CLEARS BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK REMAINING
DRY.
- FROST THREAT CONTINUES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STRONG 563DAM CLOSED LOW OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. TO THE EAST, SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS
OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE A SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE FEATURE HAS KEPT THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FIRMLY IN PLACE. AS SUCH,
HAVE NUDGED HIGHS A TAD DOWNWARD FROM NBM GUIDANCE WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. MOST LOCATIONS REACH THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
H8 WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS AND SOME NEBULOUS FORCING
FROM A WEAK WAVE EJECTING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA FROM KANSAS COULD
SPARK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS (20-30% CHANCE) ALONG OUR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN BORDER AREAS. HOWEVER, THE BEST MID LEVEL
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED H5 LOW WON'T ARRIVE
UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT. GULF MOISTURE WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THESE
FORCING MECHANISMS SHOULD HELP GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GIVEN THE 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
POPS INCREASE AREAWIDE AFTER 05Z FROM 30 TO 50%, TO 90 TO 100% BY
12Z THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT A GOOD DOUSING OF RAIN: MOST LOCATIONS
SEE 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN, WHILE ISOLATED SPOTS COULD SEE
CLOSER TO 1 INCH. LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES INDICATE PORTIONS ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN TO OMAHA TO HARLAN WITH A 50 TO
70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN. PROBABILITIES LARGELY TAPER
OFF AT 1.5 INCHES OR MORE. THE RAIN AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
RAIN SHOWERS LINGER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SFC LOW LINGERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
PICK UP TOO AS WE'LL SEE A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. EXPECT
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG PUSH OF COLD H8 AIR SINKING
SOUTHWARD IN THE LATE EVENING. SUBSIDENCE SHOULD HELP PUSH SOME OF
THE 40-50 KT LLJ AIR DOWNWARD RESULTING IN GUSTS INCREASING TO 45 TO
50 MPH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYTIME. OUR UPCOMING RAIN EVENT SHOULD HELP TAMPER DOWN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED LATE FRIDAY AS
THE H8 JET PIVOTS TO THE EAST. HIGHS ONLY WARM TO THE 50S AREAWIDE
UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SHOULD SEE A STRONG
1040MB SFC HIGH MOVE INTO MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR US TO COOL
EFFICIENTLY TO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EXPECT AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND A FREEZE ISN'T OUT OF THE
QUESTION EITHER, PARTICULARLY IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
A WARMING TREND STARTS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES EXPAND OVER THE REGION. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 60S THIS
WEEKEND, EVENTUALLY HITTING THE 70S BY TUESDAY. POPS REMAIN LESS
THAN 15% DURING THIS TIMEFRAME SO EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WE'VE SEEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH
CIGS LIFTING TO VFR. RAIN MOVES IN OVERNIGHT BRINGING BACK IFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY. RAIN CONTINUES
INTO THURSDAY WITH IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY 3-5SM THROUGH THE
MORNING. WINDS START TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS
TAPER OFF AND CIGS START TO BREAK UP AND LIFT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MCCOY
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