206
FXUS63 KOAX 161054
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
554 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AS LOW AS 30 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS & STORMS WON'T BE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN, A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS BRINGING A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE AMPLIFIED BY A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH, POTENTIALLY HIGHER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S, WE'LL SEE WIND CHILL FALL TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN, WINDS WILL RELAX GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 50S.
THIS RIDGE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BRINGING A
TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE SATURDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
ADVECT IN WARMER AIR, WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE
MID-TO-UPPER 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS WARMING TREND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE WEATHER REMAINS QUIET, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH AMPLIFYING WARM-AIR ADVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACH NEAR 80
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE'RE WATCHING ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
FORECAST TO SLIDE DOWN THE WEST COAST AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE
WEEK NEXT WEEK. WEAK SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD BRING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS. OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO BE LATER NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN
TROUGH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING,
SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE GUSTING 30-40 KTS THIS MORNING, BUT GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS CLOUDS EXIT. SPEEDS DROP BELOW 10 KTS BY THIS EVENING AND
DIRECTION BECOMES SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 05Z OR
AFTER.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-
088>093.
IA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CA
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