452
FXUS63 KOAX 161734
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1234 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES COULD
BE AS LOW AS 29 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-40%) OF FOG SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE, SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY ON AREA BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK WAS TALKING ABOUT THE
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES AND THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON OUR
POTENTIAL FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL SEASON. IT APPEARS TO BE A TALE
OF TWO SEASONS. THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT US
THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTH WINDS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DUE TO CONTINUED COLD-AIR ADVECTION, TEMPERATURES
STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE 50S WITH A WIND CHILL IN THE 40S.
THANKFULLY THE WINDS DO NOT LINGER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING, CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT IN
RESPONSE.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING AND CLEAR SKIES, OUR COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS SEASON DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD NEAR AND BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS
REACHING A HARD FREEZE (28 DEGREES OR LESS). DUE TO THESE
TEMPERATURES, THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A FREEZE WARNING FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE TEMPERATURES, THE
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION, ENOUGH
LINGERING MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN PATCHY, SHALLOW FOG. WHILE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SHOULD BE MINOR, THIS FOG COULD CAUSE A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE TO FORM ON ELEVATED SURFACE, ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. THAT SAID, THIS THREAT IS LOW (20-40% CHANCE), BUT USE
CAUTION ON YOUR MORNING DRIVE.
THE COLD WEATHER REMAINS SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING RESUMES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARM SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO HELP
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60, DESPITE THE
COLD START. THIS WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S
ON SUNDAY, PUSH 70 BY TUESDAY, AND WELL INTO THE 70S BY MID-WEEK.
WHILE OUR WEATHER REMAINS MOSTLY QUIET, AN ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE FOR THE CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST AS LONG-WAVE TROUGHING RETURNS TO
THE WESTERN CONUS. WITHIN THIS TROUGHING, SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES
LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THESE MAY RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE
OF RAIN. OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS NOT SET TO ARRIVE UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
MORNING MVFR CEILINGS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 KTS CONTINUE.
WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT
DURING THE EVENING. LIGHT NORTH WINDS TONIGHT WILL SWAP BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH DURING SATURDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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