465
FXUS63 KOAX 171700
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1200 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS LOW AS 29 DEGREES.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-40%) OF FOG SATURDAY MORNING. WITH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE, SLICK SPOTS MAY DEVELOP.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1021 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR
SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
FALL INTO THE LOW 30S, BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR
OUR AREA FROM 1AM TO 9AM. WITH SUCH RAPID COOLING WITH CALM
WINDS WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN LOW-LYING AREAS
AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
COULD MEAN WE SEE A FEW SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES.
OVERNIGHT WE'RE GOING TO SEE THE GENERAL WIND DIRECTION SHIFT
FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. WE WON'T SEE MUCH
WARMING FROM THIS JUST YET ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
50S, BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WILL
ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. GOING INTO SUNDAY A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP ACROSS
OUR AREA BRINGING IN WARM, DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
A DEEPENING TROUGH SLIDES DOWN THE WEST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
LEADING TO AMPLIFIED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PUSHING INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY WHEN THIS TROUGH
EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARD OUR AREA, DELAYING PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
NOW MORE LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 80
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ONE CONCERN TO MONITOR NEXT WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES,
FUELS WILL BE DRYING OUT MORE THROUGH THE WEEK. RIGHT NOW THE
WINDIEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY, BUT ANY WINDIER PERIODS THAT MAY DEVELOP EARLIER IN THE
WEEK COULD MEAN DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT
13-17 KTS, GUSTING TO 20-30 KTS. THOSE SPEEDS WILL LESSEN OVER
THE COURSE OF THE DAY, WITH GUSTS FALLING TO NEAR 20 KTS AND
SPEEDS AT FL015 RAMP UP. AT THAT LEVEL, THEY'LL BE REACHING
45-50 KTS NEAR KOFK (AND JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF KLNK AND KOMA)
STARTING AT 02Z, MAKING LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR A CONCERN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THIS
TIME OUT OF THE SOUTH AS OPPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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