022
FXUS63 KOAX 172330
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
630 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH ALSO ARRIVE FRIDAY, INCREASING
FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS WITH STANDING CROPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACTION ACROSS
THE INTERIOR CONUS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE SURFACE AND
NOTABLE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVES LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A COLD START
NEAR/BELOW FREEZING THIS MORNING HAS TURNED INTO A BRISK FALL
AFTERNOON, WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST CUTTING A BIT
DEEPER THAN THE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WOULD
SUGGEST. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT LIGHTER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, TURNING INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY HEADING INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. FORTUNATELY, LOWS WON'T BE QUITE AS COLD
TONIGHT, BOTTOMING OUT NEAR TO JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES, WITH THE
WIND KEEPING ANY FROST FORMATION AND MORE EFFICIENT COOLING TO A
MINIMUM.
WINDS TURN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TOMORROW MORNING, HELPING TO
USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THAT TOP OUT IN THE
MID-TO-UPPER 60S. WIND SPEEDS WILL HAVE A BIT OF THEIR EDGE
TAKEN OFF, WITH GUSTS BEING NEAR TO 5 MPH LESS THAN THIS
AFTERNOON. ONLY LATE IN THE DAY WILL ANY CLOUDS INTERRUPT OUR
CLEAR SKIES, AS A FEW HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WAFT IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE HARD TO DISLODGE FROM THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS, MAKING FOR POOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARDS THE
REGION DESPITE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A DECAYING WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, LOSING MOST OF ITS ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE AS
IT DOES SO. A FEW OF THE REGIONAL/GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A
TRACE OF MOISTURE IS POSSIBLE AS IT ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY, BUT
WE'RE NOT BETTING ON IT (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE).
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND INCREASING WINDS TOWARDS THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WILL BE THE THING TO WATCH GOING
FORWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL TURN INTO 70S BY MID-
WEEK AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVE FRIDAY (GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH) THAT
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHATEVER STANDING CROPS REMAIN BY THIS
POINT WOULD LEAD TO A CONDITIONAL INCREASE IN FIRE DANGER IF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOT ONGOING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENINGS
FRIDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF THE
TAF CYCLE. LLWS OVERSPREADS ALL TERMINALS AFTER 03Z AS STRONGER
WINDS PERSIST ALOFT AROUND 1,400 FT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS PERSIST AT KOFK FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WHILE SOME REPRIEVE IS EXPECTED FOR KOMA AND KLNK THIS
EVENING. THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS RESUME AT ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 14Z, TAPERING OFF CLOSER TO 23Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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