573
FXUS63 KOAX 180506
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1206 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AREAWIDE. HIGHS WARM
TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
(20-40%).
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH ALSO ARRIVE FRIDAY, INCREASING
FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS WITH STANDING CROPS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN H5 RIDGE OVER MOST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CONUS. AT THE SFC, A 1031MB SFC
HIGH DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS,
WHILE A STRONG 988MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO MANITOBA. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
HAS LED TO GUSTY WINDS PERSISTING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AREA.
THE GUSTY 30-35 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS OAX. THE WINDS SHOULD HELP
WARM US UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S: HAVE BUMPED THEM UP A FEW
DEGREES FROM NBM GUIDANCE. MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN CLOUD FREE
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS FILTER IN. LOWS COOL
TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
A SFC HIGH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH NORTHEAST ON MONDAY WHICH SHOULD
HELP LESSEN THE WIND SPEEDS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT EVENING, BUT WITH LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, WILL LIKELY SEE JUST SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS.
HIGHS WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE H5 RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. AS THE RESULTANT 1000-500MB THICKNESSES EXPAND, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH MOST AREAS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A FEW H5 IMPULSES MAY TRY TO
RIDE THE RIDGE AND APPROACH THE AREA DURING THAT TIMEFRAME, BUT
AGAIN, LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA WILL LIKELY LIMIT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, NBM SUGGESTS A LESS THAN 10%
CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL.
BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT AN H5 LONGWAVE
EJECTING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING SOMEWHERE INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE
AREA AND LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH. COUPLED WITH
THIS UPCOMING DRY SPELL, COULD SEE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE FUELS CAN CURE FAST ENOUGH. AS THE MID AND
LOW LEVEL FEATURES APPROACH THE AREA, SHOULD SEE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
RAIN BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (20 TO 40%).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. EXPECT SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS AND WINDS AT 1500 FT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 40-45
KTS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SPEEDS DIMINISH BY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CA
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