102
FXUS63 KOAX 181811
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
111 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HIGHS WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
(20-40%).
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH ALSO ARRIVE FRIDAY, INCREASING
FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS WITH STANDING CROPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO FEATURE A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE
RIDING THE NORTHERN SIDE OF ZONAL FLOW SET UP ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AHEAD OF THOSE FEATURES, A LARGE-SCALE MASS RESPONSE
IS UNDERWAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP AND DOWN THE GREAT
PLAINS, WITH THOSE SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING TO REBOUND
TEMPERATURES FROM THE 40S THIS MORNING WELL INTO THE 50S ON
THEIR WAY TO THEIR HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S. MUCH OF THAT
FLOW IS SOURCED FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL TEXAS, LEAVING
LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THE INCOMING SOUTHWESTERN WAVE TO WORK
WITH. WE'LL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER MOVING IN THIS EVENING,
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE
MID 60S. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED HEADING INTO TOMORROW AS
WELL, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASES AND THE
INCOMING FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST STALLS OUT BEFORE ARRIVING.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND:
WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
MID/UPPER RIDGING INCREASES IN AMPLITUDE, PROPPED UP BE A DEEPENING
TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT THURSDAY/FRIDAY IN
THE MID 70S, WITH INCREASING FLOW ONCE AGAIN IN ANTICIPATION OF
THE MAIN SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH. EPS
MEMBERS GIVE NORTHEAST NEBRASKA GREATER THAN A 70% CHANCE TO SEE
DRY CONDITIONS ALONGSIDE WINDS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER. THOSE
SOUTHERN WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN BETTER MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE EARLY WEEK, MEANING HUMIDITY VALUES WON'T BE CRITICALLY
LOW. WITH THAT SAID, AREA LAND MANAGERS AND FIRE EXPERTS HAVE
OBSERVED EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR WITH STRONG WINDS OF 40 MPH OR
GREATER WITH RH VALUES OF 50% OR LESS. THE BEST CHANCES OF THAT
HAPPENING WILL BE ACROSS OUR DRIEST AREAS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA,
WHERE THERE ARE STILL PLENTY OF STANDING, FULLY CURED CROPS
WAITING TO BE HARVESTED. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
TRENDS, BUT VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER IS ON THE TABLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH
THE MAIN CORE OF THE UPPER SYSTEM SHOOTING VERY QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL DECREASE THE FORCING LOCALLY AND LIMIT THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL. EITHER WAY, WE'LL TAKE
IT SO WE DOING DRY OUT TOO MUCH DURING THE PEAKING FALL FIRE
SEASON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL TAKE US THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL FALL
OFF, LEAVING US WITH 10 KTS LOWER SPEEDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DRY TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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