912
FXUS63 KOAX 190554
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1254 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS WARM TO THE 60S FOR TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
(40-60%).
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH ALSO ARRIVE FRIDAY, INCREASING
FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS WITH STANDING CROPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
04Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT H5 OVER
MOST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
SHORTWAVE TROF IS SEEN EJECTING FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TOWARD
THE FORECAST AREA, AND HAS ALREADY LED TO AN INCREASE IN SOME
HIGH BASED CLOUDS. SFC WINDS HAVE EASED UP SOME AS A SFC HIGH
GRADUALLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS, MAKING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT A LITTLE LESS TIGHTER.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF WILL BE AT OUR SOUTHERN DOORSTEP BY NOON
TODAY. WEAK LIFT TIED TO THE WAVE SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED MID
TO HIGH BASED CLOUDS ACROSS OAX. SOME CAMS TRY TO BRING A BROKEN
ARC OF SHOWERS INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREA LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE BULK OF
SATURATION STAYING ABOVE H7 WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
BELOW SO WILL LIKELY SEE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. HIGHS WARM TO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S THANKS TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A WARMING TREND WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE
AMPLIFIES ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. H8
WARM ADVECTION SHOULD HELP US WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, TUESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK H5 IMPULSE
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, SKIRTING ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. A FEW CAMS DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, BUT WITH THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING
LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH OVER KANSAS, DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AMPLIFYING OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE EXPANDING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES SHOULD
LEAD TO THE CONTINUED WARMING TREND AS MOST AREAS SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S THOSE DAYS.
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE ONE MORE WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. A
POTENT H5 LONGWAVE TROF WILL PROGRESS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOO. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE SFC LOW PROGGED TO TRACK PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY SEE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS MOST OF OAX. MIXING INTO A 40 TO 45 KT H8 JET MAY ALSO
HELP DRIVE DOWN SOME EXTRA MOMENTUM RESULTING IN 40 TO 50 MPH
GUSTS, PARTICULARLY OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WITH PRECIP
CHANCES LARGELY NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WILL
NEED TO WATCH THAT AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS IN THAT AREA, PARTICULARLY FROM CURED CROPS. SOME
PORTIONS COULD FLIRT WITH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, SO THOSE
WITH ANY OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST.
POPS OF 40 TO 60% RETURN AREAWIDE BY SATURDAY MORNING, TAPERING OFF
ON SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HOVER AROUND 10 KTS
THROUGH THE DAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CA
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