367
FXUS63 KOAX 192232
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
532 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEK. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS
TUESDAY EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN NOT UNTIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (30-50%).
- STRONG WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH ALSO ARRIVE FRIDAY, INCREASING
FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS WITH STANDING CROPS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN CO WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA TODAY. HOWEVER, ANY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ALOFT, AS PERSISTENT DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY
EVAPORATE THE MAJORITY OF PRECIP. BEFORE IT REACHES THE SURFACE.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY. WHILE THE VAST MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH, OVER KANSAS, A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD SURVIVE THE SUB-CLOUD DRY LAYER AND REACH THE SURFACE DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO
MID 70S ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, KEEPING HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE
MID 70S. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
A STRONG TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO SURGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUSTS UP TO 30-40+ MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S, BUT BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 70S IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA,
SATURDAY.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN
SLOWING DOWN THEIR ARRIVAL SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS. EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON (30-
50%). TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS, AROUND FL200, MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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