318
FXUS63 KOAX 201731
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S THIS WEEK.
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH ARRIVE FRIDAY,
INCREASING FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS WITH STANDING CROPS.
- OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE, WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY AS GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY,
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH A
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BY
MIDWEEK, KEEPING HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A STRONG TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY,
TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
SURGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GUSTS UP TO 30-40+ MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT INCREASED FIRE
DANGER FRIDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DRY STANDING CROPS
WAITING TO BE HARVESTED. THANKFULLY, INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR TO
SOME EXTENT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE MID 70S
IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA, SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY. EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINING OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (40-60%).
LATEST MODEL RUNS LOOK TO BRIEFLY CUT OFF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE
MAINSTREAM FLOW, OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
CUTOFF LOW EVENTUALLY EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, MERGING
BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS WOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (15-30%).
TEMPERATURES DIP CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS FORECAST TO GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 12-20 KTS AT KLNK AND KOFK THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS AFTER 00Z
THIS EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES MAY REACH THE GROUND
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 00-12Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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