380
FXUS63 KOAX 210437
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1137 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WITH A FEW AREAS APPROACHING 80.
- WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30-40MPH ON FRIDAY WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR SOME LIMITED FIRE IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH CURED FUELS.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE
LOWEST RH VALUES.
- EXPECT A COOL DOWN HEADING INTO SUNDAY, AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 50S AND 60S IN MANY AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE KICKED OFF ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. THEY WILL BE FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR, SO NOT SUPER CONFIDENT
IN MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND IN MANY
LOCATIONS. A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE (20%
CHANCE), MAINLY FOR THOSE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DAVID CITY
TO WAHOO TO COUNCIL BLUFFS.
THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE DAKOTAS, SHIFTING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY FRIDAY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH
DAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80. FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY TO
MONITOR FOR CHANGES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID-
30S TO MID-40S. THERE WILL BE SOME POCKETS OF LOWER RH VALUES (UPPER
20S TO MID-30S) ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER. WIND GUSTS IN THIS
AREA MAY APPROACH 25MPH. THE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO STAY NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID WE DO HAVE SOME AREAS WITH DRIER FUELS.
SHOULD A FIRE SPARK, THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED PROBLEMS; HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SATURDAY, LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT STARTS TO
MOVE THROUGH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AREAS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 70S, WHILE AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA/MISSOURI BORDER
MAY APPROACH 80 DEGREES. COOLER AIR SETTLES IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOWS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY MORNING, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA MAY FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT KLNK AND KOMA TO
AROUND 10,000FT AS SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND A CLOUD DECK MOVE IN
FROM KANSAS. KLNK MAY EXPERIENCE A FEW SPRINKLES BETWEEN 05Z AND
09Z; HOWEVER, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED, CONDITIONS WERE
OMITTED FROM PREVAILING CONDITIONS. HEADING INTO THE LATTER PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE AND WINDS TO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...ANW
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