513
FXUS63 KOAX 211722
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S WITH A FEW AREAS APPROACHING 80.
- WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30-40MPH ON FRIDAY WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR SOME LIMITED FIRE IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH CURED FUELS.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE
LOWEST RH VALUES.
- EXPECT A COOL DOWN HEADING INTO SUNDAY, AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 50S AND 60S IN MANY AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE KICKED OFF ACROSS
NORTHERN KANSAS AND ARE SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA. THEY WILL BE FIGHTING SOME DRY AIR, SO NOT SUPER CONFIDENT
IN MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND IN MANY
LOCATIONS. A FEW SPRINKLES OR A LIGHT SHOWER MAY BE POSSIBLE (20%
CHANCE), MAINLY FOR THOSE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DAVID CITY
TO WAHOO TO COUNCIL BLUFFS.
THURSDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE DAKOTAS, SHIFTING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS BY FRIDAY. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EACH
DAY, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80. FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY TO
MONITOR FOR CHANGES, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID-
30S TO MID-40S. THERE WILL BE SOME POCKETS OF LOWER RH VALUES (UPPER
20S TO MID-30S) ALONG THE KANSAS NEBRASKA BORDER. WIND GUSTS IN THIS
AREA MAY APPROACH 25MPH. THE AREAS OF STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO STAY NEAR THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHERE RH VALUES WILL
BE HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID WE DO HAVE SOME AREAS WITH DRIER FUELS.
SHOULD A FIRE SPARK, THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED PROBLEMS; HOWEVER,
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
SATURDAY, LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WITH
AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT STARTS TO
MOVE THROUGH. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DROPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AREAS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE 70S, WHILE AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA/MISSOURI BORDER
MAY APPROACH 80 DEGREES. COOLER AIR SETTLES IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. LOWS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S.
TUESDAY MORNING, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA MAY FALL INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD (THROUGH THIS
EVENING), EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ONLY LIMITED HIGH CIRRUS). WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE A FAIRLY MINIMAL ISSUE, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10KT AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD (LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING), THERE ARE AT LEAST SUBTLE SIGNS OF A FEW
"QUESTION MARKS" REGARDING CONTINUED VFR, BUT THESE ARE STILL OF
LOW CONFIDENCE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS AT KOFK, WHERE SOME
MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT AT SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT
PARTICULARLY 09-15. GIVEN CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE OPTED
TO ONLY "HINT" AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH A "6SM BR" VISIBILITY
GROUP. MEANWHILE, WHILE FOG APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT KOMA/KLNK,
THERE ARE HINTS OF A POTENTIAL LOWER-END VFR CEILING ADVECTING
IN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE MORNING AND POTENTIALLY
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN MIXED
SIGNALS ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZING,
HAVE OPTED INTRODUCE ONLY "SCT040" AT THIS TIME (EVEN IF A
CEILING ULTIMATELY MATERIALIZES IT SHOULD BE VFR).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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