823
FXUS63 KOAX 211934
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
234 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND A FEW AREAS IN THE LOW 80S.
- WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40-45 MPH ON FRIDAY WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR SOME LIMITED FIRE IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH CURED FUELS. HOWEVER,
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE LOWEST RH
VALUES.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY (60-80%).
EXPECT A COOLING TREND FROM SATURDAY ONWARD WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
19Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS H5 RIDGING OVER A VAST
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF IS SEEN
RIDING THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NEAR THE OAX AREA.
ASIDE FROM A FEW CLOUDS GENERATED BY THE FEATURE, SHOULD BE A
RELATIVELY QUIET DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS REACH THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S TODAY. THE RIDGING AMPLIFIES
ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN HIGHS REACHING THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AN H5 LONGWAVE TROF WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS WITH THE SFC
FEATURE TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DAKOTAS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS, AND COMBINED
WITH AFTERNOON MIXING INTO AN H8 40 TO 50 KT, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH
SOUTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL
BE ON STORE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. GIVEN
THE STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS, SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MAY ARISE, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE CROPS HAVE MANAGED TO DRY
OUT AND BECOME CURED. MINIMUM RH CURRENTLY RANGES FROM 30 TO
40% FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT DAY, BUT COULD SEE MORE OF A DROP
DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP WE CAN MIX. AT THIS TIME, PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAVE AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR MEETING RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA, HOWEVER, THE LOWEST RH VALUES OF 25 TO 30%
STILL APPEAR CONCENTRATED ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA
AND AWAY FROM THE HIGHEST WINDS.
WHILE NOT OVERLY STRONG, SHOULD SEE SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT
MOVE IN BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD WORK WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS SOME STORMS. POPS OF 30 TO 60% ARE EXPECTED FOR
PRIMARILY NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY. AS THE H5 WAVE PIVOTS
TO THE NORTHEAST, ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND EJECT TOWARD THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY, LEADING TO
CONTINUED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, THIS TIME AREAWIDE AT 60 TO
80%. CHANCES LARGELY DECREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DEPARTS
THE REGION. BY MONDAY NIGHT, MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE ANYWHERE
FROM A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN, WHILE FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA COULD SEE TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND FROM SATURDAY ONWARD, REACHING THE 50S
AND 60S BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD (THROUGH THIS
EVENING), EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS UNDER
CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (ONLY LIMITED HIGH CIRRUS). WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE A FAIRLY MINIMAL ISSUE, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10KT AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST.
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD (LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING), THERE ARE AT LEAST SUBTLE SIGNS OF A FEW
"QUESTION MARKS" REGARDING CONTINUED VFR, BUT THESE ARE STILL OF
LOW CONFIDENCE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS AT KOFK, WHERE SOME
MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HINT AT SHALLOW FOG DEVELOPMENT
PARTICULARLY 09-15. GIVEN CONTINUED LOWER CONFIDENCE HAVE OPTED
TO ONLY "HINT" AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH A "6SM BR" VISIBILITY
GROUP. MEANWHILE, WHILE FOG APPEARS LESS LIKELY AT KOMA/KLNK,
THERE ARE HINTS OF A POTENTIAL LOWER-END VFR CEILING ADVECTING
IN FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE MORNING AND POTENTIALLY
LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN MIXED
SIGNALS ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS MATERIALIZING,
HAVE OPTED INTRODUCE ONLY "SCT040" AT THIS TIME (EVEN IF A
CEILING ULTIMATELY MATERIALIZES IT SHOULD BE VFR).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...GID
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