724
FXUS63 KOAX 220502
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1202 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND A FEW AREAS IN THE LOW 80S.
- WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40-45 MPH ON FRIDAY WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR SOME LIMITED FIRE IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH CURED FUELS. HOWEVER,
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE LOWEST RH
VALUES.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY (60-80%).
EXPECT A COOLING TREND FROM SATURDAY ONWARD WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER HAS SETTLED IN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. THE RAP'S H5 JET ANALYSIS SHOWS
RIDGING DIRECTLY OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA. DEEP CLOSED
LOWS SPIN OFF EACH COAST.
PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE PROBABILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY DISCOURAGING THE
INCLUSION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST, BUT THE WIND AND DEWPOINT
DEPRESSION SUGGEST OTHERWISE. HAVE LIMITED FOG TO AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED NEAR THE PLATTE RIVER WHERE
MOISTURE IS POOLED AND RIVER VALLEYS SHIELDED FROM ANY WIND.
BELIEVE THAT THE STRONGER WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC SHOULD HELP
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOWS (AND DEWPOINTS)
SHOULD HIT BOTTOM IN THE LOW 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THURSDAY
POTENTIAL FOG WOULD LINGER UNTIL 930 OR 10AM IN SPOTS AS WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP AND MIXING WILL INITIALLY BE
SHALLOW. BY THE AFTERNOON, WINDS OF 8-15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST OUT
OF THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BEST MONDAY'S NUMBERS BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES AS THE RIDGE NOSES FARTHER NORTH OVER THE CWA AND
HEIGHTS INCH (METER?) UPWARD. EXPECT A FEW 80S MIXING IN WITH
THE UPPER 70S BY THE AFTERNOON'S PEAK.
FRIDAY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS (25%)
ALONG THE SD STATE LINE THANKS TO ISENTROPIC UPLIFT PRODUCED BY
THE LLJ. CHANCES ARE LIMITED TO BETWEEN ABOUT 2AM AND 7AM ONLY.
QPF IS NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE AND WITH THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
FORECAST, ANY ACCUMULATION WILL EVAPORATE QUICKLY. AS THE WEST
COAST LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH ARE
FORECAST BY MID- DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40MPH EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. CURRENT T/TD DIFFERENCES PUTS MIN RH MOSTLY
IN THE 30S, WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE KS STATE LINE INTO THE
UPPER 20S. THANKFULLY, HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITY
AREAS ARE NOT CO- LOCATED. THESE NUMBERS AREN'T ALL THAT FAR OFF
OF SOME OF THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA, SO SMALL ALTERATIONS
IN THE FORECAST COULD NECESSITATE AN ISSUANCE.
THE WEEKEND
LEE CYCLOGENESIS ON FRIDAY NIGHT LEADS TO A FRONT BEING DRUG
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW STREAKS NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL LEAVE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH NUMBERS RANGING FROM THE MID-60S NEAR NIOBRARA TO
CLOSE TO 80F AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT LINCOLN AND OMAHA AND POINTS
SOUTH. POST- FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (40%) IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY.
SUNDAY BRINGS BETTER RAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH AND COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN MOST LOCALES AS THE
FRONT SAGS FARTHER SOUTH.
NEXT WEEK
BEST RAIN CHANCES WAIT FOR MONDAY WHEN THE TROUGH/CLOSED LOW
SWEEPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. LIKELY POPS ARE
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. BEST CHANCES OF
ACCUMULATING AN INCH OVER THE COURSE OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
BE AREAS NORTHWEST OF COLUMBUS, NE WHERE THE 48 HOUR PERIOD
BRINGS ABOUT A 55% CHANCE OF BESTING 1". THOSE CHANCES FADE TO
ABOUT 10% BY THE TIME YOU DRIVE SOUTH OR EAST TO BEATRICE,
NEBRASKA CITY, OR ATLANTIC, IA.
LONGER RANGE
COOL AUTUMNAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE AS
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID-WEEK. THE MID-LATTITUDE JET LOOKS TO
PUSH A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
STATES KEEPING TEMPS DOWN AND OCCASIONAL SMALL POPS... POPPING.
THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK BY THE CPC SUGGESTS ODDS LEAN WARMER AND
WETTER FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF OCTOBER 2026 IN THE CORN BELT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, BUT
WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP IT PATCH, SO
CHANCES OF IMPACTS AT TAF SITES REMAINS UNDER 30%. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT 10 KTS AND GUSTING 18-20 KTS AT LNK AND OFK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page