091
FXUS63 KOAX 221826
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
126 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
- WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40-45 MPH ON FRIDAY WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR SOME LIMITED FIRE IMPACTS IN AREAS WITH CURED FUELS. HOWEVER,
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE LOWEST RH
VALUES.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
(60-80%). EXPECT A COOLING TREND FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS OVER NE NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
ITS A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO GET INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING
AT THE BROADER PATTERN WE HAVE A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH TROUGHS OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE APPALACHIANS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WE'LL SEE THE LLJ RAMP UP ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WITH THE NOSE OF THE LLJ RIGHT ALONG THE SD
STATE LINE, ANY POTENTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY IN SOUTH
DAKOTA, BUT WE DO HAVE SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS RIGHT NEAR THE STATE
LINE. THESE STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST HANG
AROUND INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY, MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE MID-
MORNING. WE'LL SEE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
GUSTING 30-45 MPH IN NE NEBRASKA, 20-30 MPH ACROSS SE NEBRASKA
AND SW IOWA. THESE WINDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT WESTERN
TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
THIS DEEPENING LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO NW NORTH DAKOTA AND
MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN, BUT BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO OUR
AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL STALL, HANGING AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, AND HIGHS
STAYING IN THE MID-70S TO LOW-80S SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT OVER NE NEBRASKA STARTING AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE INITIALLY PRECIP
WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, THESE CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO SUNDAY AS WE SEE PERSISTENT MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVERCOME THIS DRY AIR.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL PUSH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH. RAIN
CHANCES NOW AREN'T LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. COOLER, RAINY WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY TO HANG AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY CLEARING OUT
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BRINGS A SURFACE LOW
THROUGH.
WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN LATER NEXT WEEK, LOWERING
PRECIP CHANCES. ENSEMBLES SHOW LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES
IN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS WELL AS IN THE
ARRIVAL AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WEAK RIDGE MOVING IN LATER IN THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURE SPREADS FOR HIGHS GO FROM MID 50S TO LOW 70S
FOR THE OMAHA AREA (25-75 PERCENTILE). THE CURRENT FORECAST
ACROSS OUR AREA IS NEAR THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAIN CONCERN IS LIKELY LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVER NE NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH WINDS OFF THE SURFACE
RAMPING UP TO 40-45KT OUT OF THE SSW AROUND FL017. SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE AROUND 16Z REDUCING LLWS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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