027
FXUS63 KOAX 230404
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1104 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
- WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40-45 MPH ON FRIDAY WILL BE A CONCERN
FOR SOME LIMITED FIRE IMPACTS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
(60-80%). EXPECT A COOLING TREND FROM SUNDAY ONWARD WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 50S TO LOW 60S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER-80S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON AND IN
LOCALIZED SPOTS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, TOO.
WIND SPEEDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF AFTER DARK AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT ABOUT 10-20 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP SATURATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY A PRETTY DRY LAYER FROM
H8 TO H7. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS AND CAMS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE NE/SD
STATE LINE OVERNIGHT THANKS TO THE WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION. HAVE
MAINTAINED 15-25% POPS THERE FROM 4AM TO 9AM. THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY. A FEW HUNDRED KJ/G OF CAPE MEANS SOME
THUNDER MAY BE HEARD. THE VAST MAJORITY (OR TOTAL) OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY.
FRIDAY
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL HIT THEIR STRIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF UP TO 45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAX OBS EXPECTED TO BE REPORTED FROM AREAS
NORTHEAST OF COLUMBUS/NORFOLK.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RIVAL THOSE OF WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, BUT THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE PLATTE RIVER.
THAT'S THE SAME LOCATION THAT WILL BE FLIRTING WITH RED FLAG
WARNING CRITERIA AS THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 30% IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THANKFULLY, THE
DRIEST AIR (25% RH) WILL BE ALONG THE KS STATE LINE WHERE WIND
SPEEDS WILL PEAK CLOSER TO 25-30 MPH. DEEPER MIXING WOULD MEAN
LOWER RH VALUES AND THE NECESSITATION OF A RFW WITH AUTUMN
CURING AS FAR ALONG AS IT IS (35% CHANCE). THOSE HARVESTING
SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE EASE OF FIRE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD.
A FEW SHOWERS (30%) MAY DEVELOP AFTER 10PM IN NORTHEAST/CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BEHIND THE STALLED FRONT AS THE LLJ DEVELOPS AGAIN.
SATURDAY
AS A SFC LEE CYCLONE STREAKS NORTHEAST, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
PUSH INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH INTO
THE CWA. MAX TEMPS MAY DIFFER BY 20 DEGREES FROM CWA TOP TO
BOTTOM WITH SOME LOCATIONS (INCLUDING OMA) MANAGING CLOSE TO
80F FOR A FOURTH CONSECUTIVE DAY.
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE 60S IN PART DUE TO
THE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS FORECAST THERE IN THE
AFTERNOON (40-60%). THOSE RAIN CHANCES CHANGE VERY LITTLE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND
POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED IN THIS CWA AS THE QPF SIGNAL HAS
MIGRATED WEST OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. (80% IN NIOBRARA QUICKLY
FADES TO 15% IN OMAHA). IT HAS BEEN VACILLATING EAST AND WEST
ALL WEEK. REGARDLESS, BEST POPS REMAIN WEST OF THIS FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS AND
EJECTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 80% CHANCE OF 1" OF RAIN OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEKEND IN VICINITY OF ANTELOPE/KNOX COUNTY (NE
NEBRASKA) AND ABOUT 5% CHANCE IN OMAHA AND LINCOLN WHERE LESS
THAN 0.2" ARE PRESENTLY FORECAST.
BY TUESDAY, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH
WIDESPREAD 60S (THEY'RE STILL A BIT TOO HIGH) AS THE WAVE
DEPARTS AND THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS WRAP UP. IT'S AT THIS POINT
OF THE FORECAST THAT SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY.
THE OVERALL GIST, THOUGH, IS ZONAL OR SLIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY H5
FLOW WILL KEEP THE PATTERN ACTIVE. CHANCE POPS (25-40%) EACH DAY
ROUND OUT DAYS 4-8 AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AUTUMNAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY. SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT, BREEZIEST AT KOFK WHERE SPEEDS WILL
LINGER AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS AT FL015 WILL
BE BLOWING AT ABOUT 185 DEGREES AT SPEEDS OF 41 KNOTS. THIS IS
NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HIT CRITERIA NEEDED FOR TAF MENTION, BUT
SINCE IT WAS INCLUDED IN AN EARLIER TAF, I WANTED TO MENTION
HERE.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS MIX BACK TO THE SFC MID-DAY WIGHT GUSTS
OF 25-32 KNOTS EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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