915
FXUS63 KOAX 231901
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
201 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED AREAS OF HIGH FIRE DANGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CROPLAND AREAS.
- EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
(60-80%). TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY ONWARD WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE 50S AND 60S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE H5 LONGWAVE TROF OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, A SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX
IS SEEN TRACKING TOWARD THE PANHANDLE/DAKOTAS AREA. WEAK
FORCING FROM THE FEATURE SHOULD HELP INCREASE CLOUD COVERAGE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LONGWAVE HAS ALREADY INDUCED
SFC CYCLOGENESIS WITH THE 998MB LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, THIS SILL PLACES MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AREA UNDER A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 MPH, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHILE SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OF 30 TO
35 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. AN H8 40 TO
50 KT LLJ WILL OVERSPREAD MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TOO, BUT APPROACHING CLOUD COVER COULD HAMPER HOW DEEP WE'RE
ABLE TO MIX. HIGHS WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THERE IS ALSO SOME CONTINUED RISK FOR FIRE DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, PRIMARILY ACROSS REMAINING CROPLAND AREAS WHICH HAVE HAD
TIME TO CURE. HOW MUCH WE ARE ABLE TO DRY/MIX OUT WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WE SEE. OUR CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS
MINIMUM RH REACHING THE 35 TO 45% RANGE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE, WHILE THE LOWEST RH REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT 30 TO 35%. THOSE WORKING WITH FARM EQUIPMENT IN CROPLAND
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF POTENTIAL FIRE DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD.
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A PORTION OF THE H5 LONGWAVE
WILL BREAK OFF AND EJECT TOWARD THE NORTH DAKOTA/MANITOBA AREA.
WHILE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT/HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA, SHOULD STILL SEE SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG THE APPROACHING
SFC FRONT WORK WITH A STREAM OF GULF MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT 100-200 J/KG. HAVE KEPT POPS OF 30
TO 50% FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 06Z TO 14Z SATURDAY.
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM SHOWER ACTIVITY UNTIL AROUND
THE NOON HOUR AS ANOTHER H5 IMPULSE APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. COMBINED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT, SHOULD
SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP, AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA (50-70%) AND LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS
WILL BE A FUNCTION OF THE FRONTAL LOCATION, AND WILL RANGE FROM
THE 60S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO NEAR 80 IN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEE THE REMNANTS OF THE H5 LONGWAVE TROF
EJECT FROM THE FOUR CORNERS AREA NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. INCREASED MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING IN A STREAM OF MOISTURE
SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
LOOKS TO HIT THE JACKPOT, WITH 60 TO 80% POPS PROGGED FOR MOST
OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. 13Z NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGEST AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO NORFOLK WITH A 50 TO 70%
CHANCE AT SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN BY MONDAY EVENING.
PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN A QUARTER OF AN INCH TAPER OFF SHARPLY
WITH EASTWARD EXTENT, AS OMAHA AND LINCOLN SEE ANYWHERE FROM A
20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN.
THE H5 DISTURBANCE AND LINGERING PRECIP WILL DEPART THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY. MODEL SPREAD STARTS TO APPEAR FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH
BOTH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF MID LEVEL FEATURES VARYING AMONGST
GUIDANCE. MOST KEY IN ON ANOTHER H5 WAVE EJECTING FROM SOMEWHERE IN
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AREA TOWARD THE DAKOTAS, WHICH COULD PROVIDE
THE IMPETUS NEEDED FOR MORE RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NBM SUGGESTS CHANCES REMAIN LOW THOUGH AT 20-30%. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE DURATION OF THE
CYCLE. MID TO HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GUSTY 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD DECREASE IN SPEED AT MOST SITES
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, LINGERING A LITTLE LONGER
AT KOFK. WINDS THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND AN APPROACHING
FRONT TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
OVERSPREADS TERMINALS THIS EVENING, LASTING THROUGH 13-14Z.
MODELS SUGGEST A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD KOFK CLOSER TO
12Z, BUT CHANCES THAT THE TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED ARE LESS
THAN 30%.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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