207
FXUS63 KOAX 240521
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS, TO WEST POINT, TO MAPLETON,
IA (60-90%).
- TEMPERATURES COOL SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 50S AND 60S BY TUESDAY.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK(20-40%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAINED BREEZY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING, WITH SPEEDS OF 12 TO 20 MPH, GUSTING UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SATURDAY MORNING,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT.
WE COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. OVERALL, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS, TO
WEST POINT, TO MAPLETON, IA. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY WIDELY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S
IN THE RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, TO THE UPPER
70S UNDER SUNNIER SKIES IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, AS THE REMNANTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY MONDAY EVENING,
LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO SIOUX CITY HAVE A 50-80%
CHANCE OF SEEING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL. MEANWHILE, LINCOLN TO
OMAHA, AND AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LUCKY TO SEE 0.10" (<25%
CHANCE).
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RANGE WIDELY FROM CLOUDY RAIN-SOAKED
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S, TO MID AND UPPER 70S
UNDER SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON
TUESDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
INTO THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT MORE SEASONABLE
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. CHANCES
FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE INCREASING FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS TORN BETWEEN THE
WETTER GFS AND NOTABLY DRIER ECMWF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. LLWS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT,
DECREASING BY SUNRISE AT KOFK AND BY MID-MORNING AT KOMA/KLNK.
KOFK: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATER THIS
MORNING, BRINGING LOWERED CEILINGS. CURRENTLY HAVE CEILINGS
FALLING TO AROUND 5000FT AT THEIR LOWEST, STAYING LOWER THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER
12Z, EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTH. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COURSE OF
THE DAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING.
KLNK/KOMA: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS TRANSITIONING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH BY
MID-AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 10000FT.
LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD KOFK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...ANW
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