568
FXUS63 KOAX 241905
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
205 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS, TO NORFOLK, TO WAYNE (60-90%).
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS NEXT WEEK, THEN
WARM TO THE 70S BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
A SFC COLD FRONT IS SEEN BISECTING THE OAX FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. 18Z KOAX RADAR IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING METAR OBS PLACE
THE FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO TEKAMAH TO DENISON, IA.
THE FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND ANY LOW LEVEL STRATUS/HIGH
BASED CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE IN HIGHS TODAY: THOSE BEHIND
THE FRONT REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WHILE FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS
HIT NEAR 80F AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WHILE THE SFC FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA, SHOULD STILL SEE THE H8
FRONT LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FEATURE AND SEVERAL H5 IMPULSES RIDING THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP OUR SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME, THE GREATEST
CHANCES (60-80%) REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
COLUMBUS TO NORFOLK TO WAYNE, NEBRASKA.
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, THE H5 IMPULSE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL
EJECT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE RESULTANT HEIGHT
FALLS AND INCREASED H5-H7 FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL WORK WITH A BELT
OF GULF MOISTURE TO GENERATE MORE RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING CLOSER
TO 23Z AND INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS (60 TO 80% CHANCE WEST OF A
COLUMBUS TO NORFOLK TO WAYNE LINE). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA METRO AREAS. MOST OF SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MOST AREAS,
BUT EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. HIGHS REACH THE
50S IN OUR FAR NORTH, WHILE WARMER HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE H5 WAVE AND VORT MAX WILL TRAVERSE THE STATE ON MONDAY. EXPECT
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (60-80%
CHANCE). SOME DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE REST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA, BUT CHANCES
REMAIN AT 15% OR LESS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE FOR TUESDAY,
BUT ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM EASTERN KANSAS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SOME LIFT AIDED BY H8 WAA MAY GENERATE SOME
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER, BUT CHANCES
AGAIN REMAIN LESS THAN 25%.
CONTINUED ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SEVERAL H5 WAVES TO
TRAVERSE THE FLOW AND LEAD TO MORE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
(15-30% CHANCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY). LATE IN THE PERIOD,
THERE IS SOME INDICATION AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A DEEPENING
LONGWAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA, SHOULD SEE MORE RAIN CHANCES OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY (50-60%).
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
AND 60S FOR MOST AREAS. 70S RETURN FOR MOST AREAS AFTER WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
AREAS OF STRATUS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT STAYING JUST ABOVE 3,000 FEET. A FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON, SWITCHING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO
NORTH NORTHWEST. LINGERING GUSTINESS AT KOFK SHOULD SUBSIDE
CLOSER TO 00Z, WITH TERMINALS BY THEN LARGELY SEEING SPEEDS AT
12 KTS OR LESS. THE FRONT COULD ALSO SPARK A FEW SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS. MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A 20% CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE KOFK TERMINAL BETWEEN 06 TO
12Z. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE REMOVED MENTIONS WITH THIS
ISSUANCE, BUT WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CEILINGS OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINAL DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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