693
FXUS63 KOAX 252309
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
609 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES PERSIST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM COLUMBUS, TO NORFOLK, TO WAYNE (60-90%).
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HIGH RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS JUST WEST
OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. RIDGING IS OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES A GOOD SWATH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE H8 BAROCLINIC
ZONE HAS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM AIR ADVECTION TIED TO THE FEATURE AND SUBSIDENCE
FROM A SFC HIGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TOWARD OUR AREA HAS
TRAPPED LOW LEVEL STRATUS, HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES A TAD COOLER IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. FARTHER SOUTH WHERE
ONLY A FEW HIGH BASED CLOUDS ARE, TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO THE
60S AND 70S.
EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS TO LINGER FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY. BY THIS EVENING, THE SHORTWAVE TROF EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD. MID LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE,
AND PERSISTENT H8 WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD PROVIDE
FUEL FOR MORE RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 03Z ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
(60-90% CHANCE). CAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE RAIN BAND MAKING IT A
BIT FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA AREAS CLOSER TO
06Z. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IF SHOWERS WILL
MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST. FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST
SOME LINGERING DRY AIR AS PROFILES NEVER FULLY SATURATE BELOW
H7/H6 AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED NBM POPS A BIT BY
INTRODUCING AT LEAST SOME LOW CHANCES (15-25%) FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 FROM 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY.
THE SFC LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ON MONDAY RESULTING IN CONTINUED
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (60-90%). HIGHS WILL BE
COOLEST ACROSS THE NORTH, RANGING FROM THE 50S AND 60S, WHILE
70S ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS
HINTED AT BY SOME CAMS, BUT OVERALL INSTABILITY FROM BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS APPEARS LIMITED AT 100-150 J/KG.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH NEAR THE LINCOLN AND OMAHA AREAS. EXPECT A
HALF INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO
NORFOLK TO WAYNE. HREF DISPLAYS 50 TO 90% PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST A HALF INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN THAT AREA, WHILE AMOUNTS OF
AN INCH OR MORE (50-80% CHANCE) ARE CONFINED TO PORTIONS WEST
OF A LINE FROM NELIGH TO PLAINVIEW TO HARTINGTON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES RETURN FOR TUESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS
THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TOO WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A MORE COMPACT H5 SHORTWAVE IS SEEN
RIDING THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TUESDAY ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHEAST: NBM GUIDANCE KEYS IN ON SOME PRECIP CHANCES (15-
30%) FOR OUR FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE WAVE TRAVERSES.
MORE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO SLIGHTLY ZONAL
FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS (30-50%). H8 WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
LINGERS IN THE GENERAL VICINITY DURING THAT TIMEFRAME TOO. LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COMPACT WAVE
TRAVERSING THE AREA. NBM DURING THIS PERIOD SUGGESTS A GOOD 50 TO
60% CHANCE FOR RAIN AREAWIDE.
HIGHS LARGELY RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY APPEAR TO BE THE WARMEST WITH MOST
AREAS HITTING THE LOW TO MID 70S. LATE NEXT WEEKEND, HIGHS COOL TO
THE 60S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE RETREATED JUST WEST OF KOFK. THESE ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE BACK IN AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING AS RAIN MOVES IN TO NE
NEBRASKA. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE LIGHT RAIN, PREDOMINANTLY AROUND 3-4SM. ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF KLNK AND KOMA, THOUGH LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO KLNK FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT THESE TERMINALS. WINDS AT KOFK STAY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. WINDS AT
KOMA AND KLNK TURN MORE EASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND ON TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MCCOY
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