086
FXUS63 KOAX 260420
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1120 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM RED CLOUD, TO COLUMBUS, TO WAYNE (60-90%).
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TUESDAY WARM BACK INTO THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A RAIN BAND HAS SET UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE 850-MB FRONTAL
AXIS STRETCHING FROM RED CLOUD, NEBRASKA NORTH THROUGH COLUMBUS
AND WAYNE. THOUGH WE ARE SEEING ECHOES ON RADAR AS FAR EAST AS
LINCOLN AND OMAHA, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WON'T ALLOW ANYTHING
MEASURABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY STAY WEST OF
LINCOLN AND OMAHA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYING MOSTLY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS LINCOLN AND FREMONT THROUGH ONAWA, IA
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL STAY WARM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS BACK UP IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 FAR SOUTH. AREAS SEEING RAIN WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY, SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING
A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI MAY CLIP FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. RAIN
CHANCES 20-30% STARTING TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE. AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY, HIGHS
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN THREAT IS SETTING UP STARTING
FRIDAY AS A ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WITH THIS
WE SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
20-30% LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MODELS KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE RETREATED JUST WEST OF KOFK. THESE ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE BACK IN AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING AS RAIN MOVES IN TO NE
NEBRASKA. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO IFR OVERNIGHT WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY IN THE LIGHT RAIN, PREDOMINANTLY AROUND 3-4SM. ACROSS
THE REST OF OUR AREA, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH AND WEST
OF KLNK AND KOMA, THOUGH LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO KLNK FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL AT THESE TERMINALS. WINDS AT KOFK STAY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE EASTERLY FOR MONDAY. WINDS AT
KOMA AND KLNK TURN MORE EASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND ON TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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