035
FXUS63 KOAX 260514
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1214 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM RED CLOUD, TO COLUMBUS, TO WAYNE (60-90%).
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO ALL OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S TUESDAY WARM BACK INTO THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
A RAIN BAND HAS SET UP THIS EVENING ALONG THE 850-MB FRONTAL
AXIS STRETCHING FROM RED CLOUD, NEBRASKA NORTH THROUGH COLUMBUS
AND WAYNE. THOUGH WE ARE SEEING ECHOES ON RADAR AS FAR EAST AS
LINCOLN AND OMAHA, LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WON'T ALLOW ANYTHING
MEASURABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. RAIN SHOULD MOSTLY STAY WEST OF
LINCOLN AND OMAHA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RIDES NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS STAYING MOSTLY ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS AS FAR EAST AS LINCOLN AND FREMONT THROUGH ONAWA, IA
WILL BE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
WILL STAY WARM AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS BACK UP IN THE
70S TO NEAR 80 FAR SOUTH. AREAS SEEING RAIN WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY, SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING
A BREAK IN THE RAIN FOR MOST OF OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. AN
OPEN WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI MAY CLIP FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. RAIN
CHANCES 20-30% STARTING TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES RIDE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND COVERAGE. AFTER A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY ON TUESDAY, HIGHS
WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN THREAT IS SETTING UP STARTING
FRIDAY AS A ANOTHER COMPACT SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. WITH THIS
WE SEE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES
20-30% LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MODELS KEEP A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KOFK: SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS. THE COMBINATION OF LOWER CEILINGS,
RAIN, AND MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR BY 10Z, REMAINING THROUGH AT LEAST
18Z. PRECIPITATION CHANCES PIVOT FURTHER SOUTH HEADING INTO THE
EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AROUND 5-10KTS.
KOMA: VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE TERMINAL AND
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A
LOW END CHANCE (10-20%) OF A FEW SHOWERS TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z. THERE ARE SOME
QUESTIONS OF HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT AND
DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A MENTION OF IMPACTS AT
THE TERMINAL INTO PREVAILING CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY BY SUNRISE AND SOUTHERLY AFTER 03Z.
KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL AT THE ONSET OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE AFTER SUNRISE, WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY RETURNS
TO THE FORECAST HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...ANW
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