882
FXUS61 KOKX 140230
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
930 PM EST MON JAN 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
AND DISSIPATES OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. IN ADDITION, SOME MID LEVEL NEGATIVE VORTICITY AND NEAR
ZONAL FLOW ALLOWS FOR CLEAR SKIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS
INCREASING AND GUSTS DEVELOPING HAVE BEEN DELAYED WITH THE
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT. UPDATED WINDS AND GUSTS TO
REFLECT THIS.
HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS MIXED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE OCCURRING THAT
WILL MITIGATE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
USED NBM RANGE OF LOWS, FROM UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. NYC METRO EXPECTED TO HAVE LOWS MORE IN THE UPPER
20S. WIND CHILL MINIMA IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
TUESDAY WILL HAVE GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW AND MUCH COLDER. HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING. GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. WIND CHILL MAXIMA UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
AND HIGH PRESSURE WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
LATE IN THE DAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS SHOWN BY VARIOUS
MESOSCALE MODELS WITH THEIR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS BUT AT RATHER
LOW MAGNITUDES. STILL EXPECTING OVERALL MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
HOWEVER.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. CLOUDS DECREASE BUT A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN VICINITY
OF CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL US,
DRIVING A CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW, GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35
MPH. DRY AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS FORECAST FROM
NBM IN UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
CORRESPONDING WIND CHILL MINIMA IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. NYC METRO HAS LOWS MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S WITH
WIND CHILL MINIMA AROUND 10.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY AS A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH PUSHES EAST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THE SURFACE TROUGH, JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO JUST ABOVE FREEZING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
DEEPENS OFFSHORE AND THE INCOMING HIGH ALSO STRENGTHENS,
CONDITIONS WILL BE BLUSTERY, MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY. NW WINDS OF
10 TO AROUND 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH. COMBINED
WITH THE WIND, TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE THE TEENS AND 20S
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, AND IT WILL FEEL SLIGHTLY WARMER
FOR THURSDAY AS THE WIND DIMINISH.
DEEP LAYERED RIDING ALOFT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AIDS IN THE DISSIPATION OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. A SW
FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES NEXT WEEKEND
AS ANOTHER MORE COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION AND MOVES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND
TRACK NORTHEAST, PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE, THERE ARE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES WITH ANY FEATURES, SO STUCK CLOSE TO
NBM.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
VFR. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KSWF AND KHPN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, AND CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MVFR. THERE IS A
LOWER CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER AT KTEB.
WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST, BECOMING MORE NW,
290 TO 300 TRUE, DURING TUESDAY. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF
FREQUENT GUSTS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS BETTER COLD ADVECTION WILL
BE LATER IN MOVING INTO THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS
INCREASE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 15G25KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS G20KT IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR, BECOMING MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A COLD FRONT WAS EAST OF THE FORECAST WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING TO THE WEST. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND HIGH
PRESSURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE WATERS. BUFKIT SHOWS WELL MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER ON ALL THE WATERS.
SCA ALREADY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE OCEAN AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. NON-OCEAN ZONES HAVE SCA GO INTO EFFECT
STARTING 6PM THIS EVENING AND THOSE CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR ALL FORECAST WATERS. OCEAN SEAS DURING THIS TIME
ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 5 TO 7 FT. GALES WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE
FOR SOME TIME ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME UPPER MIXED
LAYER GUSTS POSSIBLE TO NEAR 40 KT, DID HOIST A GALE WATCH FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. FEEL MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT 35 KT
GUSTS ON THE OCEAN TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE NON-
OCEAN WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT.
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SCAS
TO CONTINUE OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. NON-
OCEAN WATERS MAY WIND GUSTS FALL BELOW 25 KT BY SUNSET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND OCEAN WATERS A FEW HOURS LATER. MARGINAL WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
WAVES OF 4 TO 7 FT ON THE OCEAN AND 3 TO 5 FT ON THE SOUND
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY, FALLING BELOW 5 FT OVER ALL OCEAN WATERS BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WAVES BUILD ONCE AGAIN THE OCEAN TO ABOVE 5 FT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND DIMINISH TO BELOW SCA LEVELS
ON FRIDAY.
HYDROLOGY
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS, PRECIPITATION UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH,
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JM/JP
NEAR TERM...JM/JP/MET
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JM/JP
HYDROLOGY...JM/JP
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