697
FXUS61 KOKX 142329
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
629 PM EST TUE JAN 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DISSIPATES AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A
SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES MAY PASS NEAR OR SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
REMAINING BLUSTERY AND COLD TONIGHT. OTHER THAN A STRAY FLURRY,
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. FORECAST ON TRACK AND PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.
WITH THE LOW AND MID LVL FLOW JUST N OF W, IT SEEMS UNLIKELY
THAT LAKE MOISTURE WILL SPILL INTO THE CWA EARLY THIS EVE.
HOWEVER, WITH THE UPR TROF PASSING A BIT LATER, DID MAINTAIN THE
MENTION OF CHC FLURRIES DESPITE THE RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 4000 FT. DEEP SUBSIDENCE AFT 4-6Z WITH SOME DECREASING
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT. STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM FOR TEMPS
WITH THE WINDS KEEPING THINGS MIXED.
WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SCT-BKN FLAT CU IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON WED WITH STEEP LLVL LAPSE
RATES. WITH MORE OF A NWLY FLOW, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AS STRAY
FLURRY MAKING IT DOWN TO THE CWA, HOWEVER, THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
ATTM TO INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
CONTINUED WINDY WITH H85 AROUND 30KT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE GUSTS
AROUND 25 MPH, SO BUMPED UP THE GUST FACTOR IN THE GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS. OTHERWISE, NBM TEMPS SEEMED REASONABLE SO WERE USED FOR
HIGHS.
THE CYCLE REPEATS FOR WED NGT WITH LESSENING CLOUDS AGAIN. WINDS
WILL DECREASE, PARTICULARLY LATE, AS THE WEAKENING HIGH RIDGES INTO
THE CWA. WENT WITH THE NBM AND TYPICAL LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS,
WHICH PRODUCES TEENS MOST AREAS. WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT.
THE LAST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM DISSIPATING TO THE WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH PERHAPS A CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR A
BRIEF SNOW SHOWER, OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE TROUGH THEN
LIFTS OUT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH BRIEF UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING A BRIEF WARM UP
THRU SATURDAY WITH 40S RETURNING TO COASTAL LOCALES IN THE AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE, PACIFIC ENERGY THAT BRIEFLY BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS
WESTERN CANADA AND THE PNW, ALONG WITH NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY
DESCENDING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA, WILL CARVE OUT A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. WITH MILDER AIR IN PLACE, RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY IN A
STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A TRAILING WAVE ALONG THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY MAY THEN ATTEMPT DEEPEN AS
IT SLIPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND IT'S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE REGION IS GRAZED BY THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE AXIS. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS KEEP THIS
SYSTEM WEAK HOWEVER, AND ANY ASSOCIATED QPF LOCALLY WOULD BE LIGHT.
LOTS OF SOLUTIONS AT THEREAFTER INTO NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THE
UNDERLYING THEME WILL BE THE INVADING ARCTIC AIR, PERHAPS THE
COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON, SETTLING IN THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PERSISTENT PATTERN REMAINS WITH LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WNW-NW WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY DIRECTION 290-310 THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF NEAR 15-20 KT AND GUSTS NEAR 25-30 KT.
GUSTS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH A BIT THIS EVENING BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN THE GUSTS OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PEAK GUSTS 3-5 KTS HIGHER THAN GUSTS IN TAF ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLE SNOW AT
NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY: CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH POSSIBLE RAIN/SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS THRU WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING WED NGT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS THRU THE DAY ON WED, AND MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED
INTO THE EVE ON THE OCEAN IF SEAS REMAIN AOA 5 FT. IN ADDITION, SOME
LGT FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS POSSIBLE THRU WED NGT WITH A COLDER
AIRMASS BUILDING IN.
EXPECT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM DISSIPATES TO THE WEST
ON THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE PRECEDED BY A
STRENGTHENING S/SW FLOW THAT COULD LEAD TO 25 KT GUSTS SATURDAY.
OCEAN SEAS MAY BUILD TOWARD 5 FT BY SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DR
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JM/BR
MARINE...JMC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DR
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