302
FXUS61 KOKX 152052
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
352 PM EST WED JAN 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION GRADUALLY WEAKENS TONIGHT. THE
HIGH GIVES WAY TO A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND PASSES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM
PASSES ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY. AN
ARCTIC HIGH THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION DURING THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE STRONG
AND GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW DIMINISHING. ANY FLURRIES THAT MAY BE
ON-GOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT WILL BE ENDING AS THE WINDS DIMINISH
AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED A
MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY CONDITION THROUGH TONIGHT WITH THE DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE, AND AS ANY STRATO CU DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE NBM DETERMINISTIC AND MAV GUIDANCE WERE USED FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THURSDAY BEGINS WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AS IN PLACE HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND
UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO THE WEST. THE FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY ON
TRACK AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE DELMARVA BY LATE
IN THE DAY WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE. WHILE THE NBM
REMAINS DRY WITH THE LOW, CAMS DO DEVELOP SNOW SHOWERS BY LATE
IN THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW RATHER QUICKLY
MOVES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES LATE
THURSDAY INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE WINDS BECOMING WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WARM ADVECTION IS NEGLIGIBLE, AND WITH THE COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER THURSDAY'S HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY'S AND ONCE AGAIN BLENDED THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC AND MAV GUIDANCE. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW HAVE ADDED QPF. LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
FAIR WX IS EXPECTED ON FRI AS AN H5 RIDGE TRANSITIONS INTO THE
REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE AS A DEEP UPR TROF DIGS
INTO THE CNTRL CONUS. MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ON SAT
WILL PRODUCE CHCS FOR PCPN LATE SAT AND SAT NGT. RAIN ATTM FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH A MIX INTERIOR WITH THE ARCTIC AIR YET TO BUILD IN.
THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING OR A CHANGEOVER BEFORE THE PCPN ENDS AS
THE COLD AIR ADVECTS IN. ALTHOUGH PCPN IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LGT
AND THEREFORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, THERE COULD BE
SOME REFREEZING ISSUES ON ROADS ETC SAT NGT. ANOTHER WEAK LOW
DEVELOPS INVOF THE POLAR FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN NGT. THIS WOULD
PRODUCE SOME SNOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH A GENERAL 1-3 OR 2-4 TYPE
EVENT. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION/TIMING OF THE SYS, AND THE
BLENDED NBM POPS YIELD ROUGHLY 30-50 PERCENT AT THIS STAGE. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME SCALE SO DID NOT STRAY FROM THE NBM.
ARCTIC AIR THEN BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WX
UNLESS A STRAY FLURRY FROM THE LAKES REACHES THE CWA. HIGHS IN MANY
PLACES ON TUE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE TEENS.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE
THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS STILL
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTS DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE RETURN OF GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS OVERALL REMAIN NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 KT. SOME OCCASIONAL PEAK GUSTS NEAR 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING TO NEAR 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS MORE IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY
NEAR 10 KT, BEFORE COMING MORE SW FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME
OCCASIONAL 15-20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PEAK GUSTS 3-5 KTS HIGHER THAN GUSTS IN TAF ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
05Z THURSDAY.
TIMING OF WHEN GUSTS END IN THE TAF COULD BE 1-3 HOURS OFF.
SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. OCCASIONAL SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLE SNOW AT
NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY: CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW, WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR COASTAL TERMINALS DAY
INTO EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE SNOW EARLY WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS EARLIER POSTED,
EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, AND THE EASTERN
LONG ISLAND BAYS WHERE MARGINAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ADVISORY WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 1000 PM EST FOR THESE WATERS. GUSTS WILL BE
DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NON
OCEAN WATERS, BUT MAY CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR SO PASSED THE
CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRATION OF 600 PM, HOWEVER, WITH THE SHORT
DURATION AND LOW CONFIDENCE HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. ONCE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS THIS EVENING SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS CONDITIONS FALL
BELOW ADVISORY SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND THEN REMAIN
BELOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS ON FRI, THEN
COND ON THE OCEAN MAY RAMP UP TO SCA LVLS ON SAT WITH A SYS
MOVING THRU. AS LOW PRES STRENGTHENS OVER THE OCEAN, SEAS BUILD
TO SCA LVLS ON THE OCEAN SUN. ALL AREAS MAY HIT SCA OR GALE IN
STRONG NW FLOW ON MON AS ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
335-338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ332-
340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
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