207
FXUS61 KOKX 160935
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
435 AM EST THU JAN 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING GIVES WAY TO A
DISSIPATING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY
AND PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BRIEFLY RETURN FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER, FRONTAL WAVES MOVE BY THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE HAVE INCREASED
SOME AND MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR NE NJ, THEN
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY REMAINS ACROSS EASTERN LI AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAPS
IN ON MORE MOISTURE AND ALSO AIDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO FOCUS ACROSS
THIS AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
JUST SOUTHEAST OF EASTERN LI, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
THROUGH THE DAY. REGARDLESS THOUGH, LIQUID EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS
FOR THIS EVENT ARE FORECAST TO BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY A COUPLE OF
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT A BIT MORE POSSIBLE ACROSS
EASTERN LI. THUS, LOOKING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A LIGHT COATING
OF SNOWFALL WITH AS MUCH AS AN INCH ACROSS THE TWIN FORKS OF
LI. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 30S AT THE COAST, WHATEVER DOES FALL SHOULD ACCUMULATE.
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL THEN COME TO AN BY
EARLY MORNING (2-3 AM) ACROSS FAR EASTERN LOCATIONS. LOWS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 20S WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS
INLAND.
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING GREATER THAN 0.1" OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT
WITH THE GEFS, GEPS, AND EPS ARE ALL HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN LI
AND IN MOST CASES 70-90 PERCENT. THE NBM IS ONLY ABOUT 30 PERCENT
AND THE HREF IS ABOUT 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS ALL OF LI/SE CT.
HOWEVER, ONCE YOU BUMP UP TO GREATER THAN 0.5"OF SNOWFALL,
PROBABILITIES FALL OF DRAMATICALLY. IN ADDITION, AREAS NORTH
AND WEST THE PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW FOR GREATER THAN 0.1"
OF SNOWFALL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF ORANGE
COUNTY NY. THUS, THIS ALL POINTS TO A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
FOR FRIDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40 WITH A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED WITH A FAST UPPER FLOW IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF
THE POLAR JET. THE NEXT AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL RACE EAST, SENDING A FRONTAL SYSTEM
TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH AT NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SNOW COULD
BRIEFLY MIX IN AT THE ONSET ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WELL
NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 40S. SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON
MAY GUST 20 TO 25 MPH, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF A 0.25" OR LESS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST ACROSS FAR
EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT, OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST. THE CENTER OF THIS LOW LOOKS TO PASS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITION EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS POSITIONED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND ONCE AGAIN PASS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEING IMPACTED BY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY FOR THE COASTAL AREAS. THE CMC HAS
CONSISTENTLY SHOWED A STRONGER LOW THAT APPROACHES THE COASTLINE,
RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW INLAND. OPTED TO KEEP POPS AT A HIGH END
CHANCE (40-50 PERCENT) WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FOR
MUCH OF THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY.
THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY WITH
A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE CENTER OF THE
US. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT WILL MAKE FOR GUSTY NW FLOW WITH A RELATIVELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. PERSISTENT CAA IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WINDS 10-20 MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30
MPH. THIS CAA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP
DRAMATICALLY INTO MIDWEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE ONLY IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S. HIGHS BY TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS WITH
THE COAST POSSIBLE APPROACHING 20 DEGREES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN TONIGHT AND MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LIGHT FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY THIS MORNING, THEN SW INTO THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TOWARD 20 KT MAY RETURN AT SOME TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH ALSO MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL. WINDS VEER WESTERLY
AGAIN TONIGHT, THEN NW INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, AND HAVE A PROB30 TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL, ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BRIEF IFR CONDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
GENERALLY BETWEEN 22Z THU AND 3Z FRI OR SO. DRYING OUT THEREAFTER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL.
SNOW SHOWER TIMING THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO. BRIEF
IFR CONDS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH RAIN LIKELY, POSSIBLE SNOW AT
NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY.
SUNDAY: CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SNOW, WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR COASTAL TERMINALS DAY INTO EARLY
EVENING.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE SNOW EARLY WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SATURDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN WATERS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
4 TO 6 FT AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT.
SEAS AROUND 5 FT MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING, BUT SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER ON ALL WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT. WAVES THEN BUILD ON THE OCEAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
SCA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES, WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT SHOULD RESULT IN GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, BUT STRAY GUSTS TO NEAR OR OVER 25KT
CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
PERSISTENT WINDS ABOVE 15 KT WITH A FRIGID AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN
WHERE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED, AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW
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