564
FXUS61 KOKX 190900
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PUSHES
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY BRINGING AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO THE AREA THAT REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
AN OFFSHORE LOW POTENTIALLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY PERIOD. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND IS
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
* WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT*
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TODAY
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR THE AREA. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SE TREND OF THE
CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES TO THE SOUTH.
THIS OVERALL RESULTS IN A COOLER AND SNOWIER SYSTEM FOR THE
COAST.
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SW. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT COASTAL
AREAS AT LEAST INITIALLY MIX WITH RAIN. AS THE INTENSITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION INCREASES WITH THE LOW STRENGTHENING AND PASSING
TO THE SOUTH, DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY LOW LEVEL
WARMER AIR TO COOL TO FREEZING RESULTING IN ANY MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW TO BECOME ALL SNOW. SNOW BECOMES MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE CWA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVIER
SNOW WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG ANY MESOSCALE BANDING ON THE NW SIDE
OF THE CYCLONE, BUT WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT UNTIL IT DEVELOPS.
ANY LOCATION THAT IS ABLE TO BE UNDER A HEAVIER SNOW BAND MAY
OVERPERFORM REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE SNOW GRADUALLY
DISSIPATES FROM SW TO NE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD
BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN CT.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6-8 INCHES FOR THE WARNING
AREAS, WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NORTHERN NEW LONDON
COUNTY IN CT AND EASTERN BERGEN COUNTY IN NJ. SNOWFALL TOTALS
HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTAL CWA. THE
NYC METRO WILL LIKELY SEE ANYWHERE FROM 4-6 INCHES, WITH LONG
ISLAND AND COASTAL CT EXPECTING 3-5 INCHES. IT REMAINS VERY
POSSIBLE THAT ANY COASTAL AREA IN THE ADVISORY SEE LOCALLY UP TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW, AND/OR A SUBSEQUENT UPGRADE TO A WARNING,
ESPECIALLY IF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES A SE TREND IN THE LOW
TRACK. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH INITIAL MIXING
OF RAIN OCCURS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY HEAVY SNOW BANDING.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BRING A PERSISTENT NW FLOW WITH 20-25 MPH GUSTS
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLY
LOCALLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.
THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ADVECT A
FRIGID AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
20S WITH WIND CHILLS MAKING IT FEEL LIKE THE TEENS AND SINGLE
DIGITS. PERSISTENT WIND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING BUT THE BUILDING FRIGID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. WIND CHILLS
WILL HOWEVER MAKE IT FEEL LIKE ANYWHERE FROM NEAR 0 FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND TO -15 FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE A WIND CHILL VALUE FROM 0 TO
-10.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAIN POINTS
* ARCTIC COLD AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES NOT
GETTING TO FREEZING UNTIL FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND NOT ABOVE
FREEZING FOR UNTIL NEXT SATURDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
* COLDEST HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
HIGHS ONLY REACHING UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
* COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHEN LOWS PLUMMET TO SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. SOME LOCATIONS GET TO SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES.
* SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOST
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ALONG COAST MOSTLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ZERO FOR WIND
CHILLS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FCST THINKING IN THE EXTENDED.
WENT CLOSE TO THE NBM FOR TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD, WITH TEMPS
REMAINING BLW FREEZING THRU FRI, EXCEPT AT THE COASTS WHERE HIGHS ON
FRI COULD HIT THE MID 30S. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND WHICH IS PROGGED TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THIS FAR
OUT, SO TEMPS COULD SWING MUCH COLDER OR WARMER DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE BOUNDARY SETS UP. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NBM IS LEANING TOWARDS THE
COLDER SIDE ATTM.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE LGT SNOW CHCS FOR TUE
NGT INTO WED, DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE UPR TROF. THE NBM POPS
HOWEVER WERE STILL IN CHC CATEGORY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, SUGGESTING
THAT THE CONSENSUS HAS NOT LATCHED ONTO THIS TREND YET. WILL STICK
WITH THE HIGHER POPS FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE TREND HOLDS.
STILL CHCS FOR SNOW NOW LATE THU INTO FRI, ESPECIALLY ERN AND SRN
AREAS WITH AN OFFSHORE LOW. THERE IS NOT SOLID AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
MODELS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NBM POPS IN THE 20-30 RANGE ATTM.
POTENTIAL FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER THE CWA DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MAINLY LGT PCPN, BUT
PINPOINTING THE BOUNDARY THIS FAR OUT IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY, PASSING TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
BECOMING VFR THRU 12Z, THEN COND WILL LOWER TO IFR/LIFR IN SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON, PERSISTING INTO THIS EVENING. THE SNOW TAPERS
OFF AFT 3-5Z.
WINDS VEER TO THE N THEN NE TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 11KT.
WINDS BECOME NW AFT 22-00Z, AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY, REMAINING
STRONG THRU MON.
EXPECTED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS:
NYC TERMINALS, BDR, ISP: 4-6" HPN: 4-8" SWF: 5-8"
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE TIMING ON SNOW THIS AFTN. OCNL GUSTS
POSSIBLE AFT 18-20Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE TONIGHT: IFR/MVFR BECOMING VFR. NE-N WIND GUSTS 15-20KT IN THE
EVENING, BECOMING NW 20-25KT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN -SN, PARTICULARLY COASTAL
TERMINALS.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET ARE PROVIDING FOR A CONTINUED SCA ON
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS
AND SEAS THEN INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS ALL FORECAST WATERS AS
THE LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TONIGHT,
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS ALL WATERS WITH A GUSTY WNW
BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THERE WILL BE A LOW END CHANCE FOR
SOME GALE GUSTS ON THE OCEAN.
MONDAY, WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL WATERS DUE TO
WIND GUSTS, FOR OCEAN BOTH WIND GUSTS AND SEAS. DECREASING TREND TO
WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT OCEAN WILL PROBABLY STILL HAVE SCA
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. NON-OCEAN WATERS STAY BELOW
SCA FOR MONDAY NIGHT. THE OCEAN COULD HAVE SOME LINGERING SCA
CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING WITH OTHERWISE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
FOR THE WATERS. FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY, SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS.
ALSO, WOULD EXPECT SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR PARTS OF THE WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR CTZ005>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ067>070.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-103>105-107.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MW
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