273
FXUS61 KOKX 201134
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
634 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY, ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WEAKENS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE FCST IS ON TRACK. GUSTY NW/WNW FLOW TODAY. THE HIGHEST GUST
POTENTIAL MAY BE IN THE 12-16Z TIME FRAME WITH NW FLOW,
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE. THE FLOW BACKS A LITTLE TO
THE WNW THIS AFTN AND WINDS ALOFT LESSEN A BIT. CHANCE FOR SOME
SCT-BKN CU TO DEVELOP AROUND 4K FT AS WELL. THE NBM AND MOS WERE
CLOSE SO WENT WITH THE NBM FOR HIGHS.
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE CLEARING SKIES TNGT, THEN AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE TUE. WITH SOME FRESH SNOW COVER
SHAVED A DEGREE OFF THE NBM LOW TEMPS. WINDS PROGGED TO LESSEN
WITH ONLY ABOUT 20KT AT H85, SO THAT WILL BE THE WIND CHILL
LIMITING FACTOR. THE CURRENT FCST DOES NOT REACH COLD WX ADVY
CRITERIA, SO NOTHING ISSUED ATTM. IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH MIN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CONTINUED COLD THRU WED NGT. APPARENT TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD
STILL NOT QUITE AT ADVY CRITERIA. SOME OF THE COLDEST SPOTS TUE
NGT GET TO AROUND ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLW. TO DO THIS THOUGH THE
WINDS NEED TO GO NEARLY CALM, SO LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WIND
CHILL AND ACTUAL TEMPS. THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED, WITH A FEW LOCAL
ADJUSTMENTS, THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS STAY BLW FREEZING THE ENTIRE
TIME.
H5 TROF COMES THRU TUE NGT AND IS MODELED TO BE DRY. THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROF APPEARS TO KEEP LOW PRES OFFSHORE FROM IMPACTING THE
AREA ATTM. THE NBM HAS CAPTURED THE SWD TREND AND POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED ACROSS THE CWA ACCORDINGLY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS
EVENT ARE ACROSS LI AND ONLY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. UNLESS THE
UPR TROF SLOWS DOWN OR ACQUIRES MORE OF A NEG TILT, POPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATING, INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
DOMINATES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO
THE WEST, HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR
LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE HIGH WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER, AND BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL LEVELS. A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND WILL
ALLOW ANOTHER TROUGH TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING, AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SNOW FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR.
A GUSTY NW TO W FLOW CONTINUES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 25KT, WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS END
SOON AFTER SUNSET OUTSIDE THE NYC METRO AREA, AND BY 01Z AT THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS. A W FLOW AROUND 10KT, OR LESS, CONTINUES
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG
COASTAL LONG ISLAND WITH MVFR POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS TO THE WNW THIS AFTN. A SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH SOME LGT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.
WINDS MRGNL TNGT ON THE PROTECTED WATERS, SO THE ADVY WAS NOT
EXTENDED THERE AND ONLY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS DIMINISH
FURTHER ON TUE, AND ALL WATERS MIGHT STAY BLW SCA LVLS. SOME
FREEZING SPRAY STILL POSSIBLE. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND
SEAS ARE BLW SCA LVLS ON WED.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ACROSS THE FORECAST
WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE MAY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS AND
SEAS TO BE NEAR SCA LEVELS EAST OF MORICHES INLET AND ACROSS THE
LONG ISLAND EASTERN BAYS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
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