936
FXUS61 KOKX 160929
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
429 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE LOCAL AREA AS IT PASSES TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND THEN TO THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BEHIND THE LOW LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOW PRESSURE SPINS OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES ON MONDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTH
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND
GRADUALLY NOSES IN. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OUT OFF
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. THIS LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ALONG AND JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY.
THE LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ELEVATED WARM NOSE HAS WORKED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A TRANSITION
TO RAIN/FREEZING RAIN. BASED ON LATEST OBS AND HIRES GUIDANCE,
HAVE EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR
THROUGH 16Z SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM TOTAL ICE UP TO
A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. MANY OF THESE LOCATIONS ARE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HOWEVER, JUST INLAND FROM COAST ACROSS
CT, ROCKLAND, AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES IN NY, AND PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR NE NJ, THERE COULD STILL BE A 2 TO 3 HOURS OF PATCHY
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE LATTER OF WHICH IS BEING HANDLED WITH
AN SPS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY LIGHT RAIN UNTIL SOME HEAVIER RAIN
WITH A STRENGTHENING LLJ ARRIVES LATER THIS MORNING.
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, SENDING A WARM FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM OVERNIGHT TO NEAR
FREEZING WILL INLAND AND AROUND 40 ACROSS LI AND THE NYC.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF LI. THE
FIRST SHOT OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH A SECONDARY SURGE OF WARM ADVECTION AS A
SOUTHERLY LLJ APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, STRONGEST TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST OF LI, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 75 TO 85 KT JUST A FEW
THOUSAND FEET. AIRMASS WILL BE STRONGLY INVERTED AND ANY MIXING
OF HIGHER WINDS FROM ALOFT WILL LIKELY NOT TO HAPPEN UNTIL LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND
THE INVERSION ERODES. WITH THE WARM FRONT STILL IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY, STRONG THERMAL FORCING BOTH IN THE WARM SECTOR AND TO
THE NORTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE A CONVECTIVE TYPE OF RAINFALL.
RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME WILL BE MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
HEAVY WITH THE BEST THERMAL FORCING ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT.
BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
MUCH OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS LI AND CT.
A HIGH WIND WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 40-50KT, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AT THE
TOP OF MIXED LAYER WILL BE AROUND 50 KT, AND ON AVERAGE ABOUT 40
KT THROUGH THE LAYER. THUS, HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, AIDED BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND CYCLONIC FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE 20S BY
DAYBREAK MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
* WINDY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY.
* THE POTENTIAL REMAINS AND HAS INCREASED SOME FOR A SIGNIFICANT /
MAJOR WINTER STORM IN THE WED NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER
THE AREA DUE THE DEPARTING LOW THAT WILL SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY AND STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1050-1054 MB)
THAT BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. W WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE
FORECAST, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT.
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY. AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH, A
BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES, ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS LOW THEN TREKS EAST ALONG THE
GULF STATES, AND EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
THEN TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY, PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE CURRENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL SUITE, MOST MODELS TRACK THE LOW
AROUND OR JUST EAST OF THE 40/70 BENCHMARK, A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR AN
ALL SNOW EVENT. CURRENT NBM FORECAST ALSO SHOWS AN ALL SNOW
FORECAST, LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AN ALL SNOW EVENT. DESPITE
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN AN ALL SNOW EVENT, THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION. IF THE LOW PUSHES TO FAR EAST, IT
WILL TAKE THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT, AND THUS, SNOW
WILL BE MUCH LESS AND LIMITED TO THE COAST.
AS FOR ENSEMBLES, CURRENT ECMWF ENSEMBLE GIVE COASTAL AREAS A 30-40%
CHANCE OF 24 TOTAL PRECIP OF GREAT THAN HALF AN INCH LIQUID
EQUIVALENT, WHILE THE SAME METRIC IS ONLY 10-20% WITH THE GFS
ENSEMBLE. CURRENT NBM IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE FINER
DETAILS WILL BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT, AND MORE
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS COME INTO PLAY.
WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GIVE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THIS EVENT, GEFS
PLUMES SHOW A MEAN OF ABOUT 2.5" FOR KISP, WHILE THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC IS ABOUT 9.0" FOR THE EVENT, WITH A FAIR NUMBER OF
MEMBERS BELOW THE 2.5" MEAN. THIS UNDERSCORES THE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS UPCOMING EVENT.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES INTO THIS MORNING. THE LOW
WILL PASS WEST AND NORTH TODAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EVENING.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR COND IN RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AT KSWF TIL AROUND NOON) SHOULD CONTINUE, AND VSBY
COULD LOWER TO 1/2SM IN RAIN AND FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WARM FROPA.
E TO NE WINDS AT MAINLY 5 TO 13 KTS DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL SHOULD
VEER MORE TO THE E AT MOST SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
GUSTY AFTER WARM FROPA, THEN SHIFT W WITH COLD FROPA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT FOR A TIME.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE NYC METROS, OUT TOWARDS
KBDR, KISP, AND KGON THIS AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TOWARDS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WINDS G35-45KT.
MONDAY: VFR. W WINDS G35-40KT, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: BECOMING IFR IN SNOW.
THURSDAY: IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. NE WINDS G20KT, BECOMING NW G25KT AT
NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WEAKENS AND THEN DISSIPATES TO
THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
STRONG WEST WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5
TO 8 FT ON LI SOUND AND 10 TO 18 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.
GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS ON MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL STORM
FORCE GUSTS FOR THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE, IN THE WAKE OF A STORM
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HIGH OCEAN SEAS OF 7 TO 16 FT
MONDAY MORNING, DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT REMAIN ABOVE SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NON OCEAN WATERS DROP
BELOW 25 KT LATE IN THE DAY/TUESDAY EVENING, WHILE OCEAN WATER GUSTS
WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND MUCH OF
THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE A COASTAL LOW IMPACTS THE WATERS LATE IN
THE DAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS OVER OCEANS WATERS FIRST LATE THURSDAY,
THEN ACROSS ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEEKEND'S STORM
SYSTEM DESPITE THE FACT THAT 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREAFTER NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ005>008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ067-068.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ002.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
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