540
FXUS61 KOKX 161033
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
533 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
THEN UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE COUNTRY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY NOSES INTO
THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE THEN EMERGES OUT OF THE GULF STATES AND
EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST. THIS LOW STRENGTHENS AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST AND TRACKS JUST OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY. THE
LOW PULLS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WARM FRONT POISED JUST SOUTH OF LI THIS MORNING WILL BE SLOW
TO LIFT NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY LIFT ACROSS COASTAL
LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY, ENOUGH COLD AIR
REMAINS TRAPPED ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CT WITH LIGHT E/NE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POCKETS OF
SUB-FREEZING AIR DAMMED IN UNTIL LATE MORNING. THERE ALREADY
HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF UP THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE WITH
ADDITIONAL ICING EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE MAY BE A BIT
OF LULL BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE WARM ADVECTION.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
PASS NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA WITH A SECONDARY LOW FORMING
NEARBY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AS IT HEADS UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT, WILL BE A STRENGTHENING LLJ,
WITH A 75-85 KT CORE AT 925 MB PASSING NEAR OR OVER FAR EASTERN
LI THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG THERMAL FORCING WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN, POSSIBLY EMBEDDED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE WILL FROM NYC AND POINTS EAST LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT RAINS SURGING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO ENHANCE THE LIFT ALONG THE
COAST WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THEN AGAIN AREAWIDE
WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE AREA WILL INITIALLY BE CAPPED BY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION, HOWEVER, AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN
SECTIONS, IT WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH) TO BRIEFLY IMPACT
COASTAL LOCATIONS.
BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THE
AREA IS FORECAST TO HAVE RECEIVED 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OF LIQUID
EQUIVALENT, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS LI AND CT. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, STRONG WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-50 KT GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG PRESSURE
RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT. WINDS AT THE TOP OF MIXED LAYER
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 50 KT, AND ON
AVERAGE ABOUT 40 KT THROUGH THE LAYER. HOWEVER, HAVE CANCELLED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH AND REPLACED WITH A WIND ADVISORY. NBM AND
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR WINDS OF 50KT SHOW ONLY LOW CHANCES. IT
WOULD ALSO BE UNLIKELY TO CONSISTENTLY MIX DOWN FROM THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME OF THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
MUCH COLDER AIR RETURNS TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK
BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE 20S BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY WITH WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS TO CONTINUE WITH GUSTS
40-50 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 7 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR MID FEB FOR MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
* QUITE COLD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
* THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TOWARDS MID
WEEK (WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY), ALTHOUGH THE LATEST TREND IS
FURTHER EAST.
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER
THE AREA DUE THE DEPARTING LOW THAT WILL SPIN OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES ON MONDAY AND STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1050-1054 MB)
THAT BUILDS IN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA. W WINDS OF UP TO 25 MPH ARE
FORECAST, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH IN THE MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE IN THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES A BIT.
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING THE REGION DRY. AS THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MOVES
SOUTH, A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES, ALLOWING
LOW PRESSURE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE. THIS LOW THEN TREKS EAST ALONG
THE GULF STATES, CROSSES THE FL PANHANDLE, THEN GETS ALONG AND OFF
THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW THEN TRACKS
NORTHEAST INTO THURSDAY, PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE 0Z 16 FEB RUNS SHOWS THE GUIDANCE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY MORE
BULLISH ON A SIGNIFICANT MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
SNOWSTORM (ECMWF, UKMET, CMC) HAD ADJUSTED EAST SOME. THE 0Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A TREND IN ITS PAST 3 OR 4 RUNS OF BEING A BIT
FURTHER EAST. THE DIFFERENCES OVERALL APPEAR TO BE MORE WITH THE SFC
PROGS AND NOT AS MUCH AT 500 MB. THE DIFFICULTY IN THIS PARTICULAR
SITUATION APPEARS TO REST WITH HOW THE NORTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW
INTERACTS WITH ANY SUPPRESSED PACIFIC ENERGY. WILL THE PACIFIC
ENERGY GET TOO FAR OUT AHEAD OF THE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM
WHERE THE INTERACTION WILL BE LESS AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH CLOSED
LOW WILL THEN HAVE LESS LOWER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH?
THIS IS THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. HAVE ADJUSTED WITH THE TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM AND NOW MOVE IT ALONG QUICKLY. THUS, HAVE NOW LOWERED
POPS FOR THU NIGHT AS THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS
GLOBAL CAMPS TO EXIT THE SYSTEM FASTER.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EXPECT IT WILL BE BRISK AND COLD FOR THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ON A NW FLOW REGIME. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BE
PRIMARILY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND
WITH A CP AIR MASS IN PLACE.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT APPROACHES INTO THIS MORNING. THE LOW
WILL PASS WEST AND NORTH TODAY, WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
MOST TERMINALS TOWARDS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL TAKE PLACE EARLY IN THE EVENING.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR COND IN RAIN AT MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT MAINLY
FREEZING RAIN AT KSWF TIL AROUND NOON) SHOULD CONTINUE, AND VSBY
COULD LOWER TO 1/2SM IN RAIN AND FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WARM FROPA.
E TO NE WINDS AT MAINLY 5 TO 13 KTS DEPENDING ON THE TERMINAL SHOULD
VEER MORE TO THE E AT MOST SITES BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND
GUSTY AFTER WARM FROPA, THEN SHIFT W WITH COLD FROPA EARLY THIS
EVENING AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT FOR A TIME.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE POSSIBLE AT THE NYC METROS, OUT TOWARDS
KBDR, KISP, AND KGON THIS AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TOWARDS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. W WINDS G35-45KT.
MONDAY: VFR. W WINDS G35-40KT, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: BECOMING IFR IN SNOW.
THURSDAY: IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. NE WINDS G20KT, BECOMING NW G25KT AT
NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE NON-OCEAN WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TODAY, FOLLOWED BY STRONG WEST WINDS LATER THIS EVENING.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF PRE-FRONTAL SW GALE/STORM-FORCE GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWING BY A WESTERLY GALE/STORM-FORCE GUSTS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. EXPECT GUSTS 40-50KT WITH SEASON ON THE
OCEAN BUILDING TO 11 TO 19 FT ON THE OCEAN TONIGHT, AND 5 TO 8
FT ON LI SOUND.
WITH A STRONG W FLOW LOW WATER BENCHMARKS MAY BE APPROACHED IN A
COUPLE OF LOCATIONS FOR THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY LOW TIDE
CYCLES. GALE CONDITIONS PREVAILING MONDAY NIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, WITH SUB
ADVISORY CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OCEAN SEAS GET DOWN TO AROUND 2 FT. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM GETS OFF THE COAST AND
A NW FLOW INCREASES.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM THIS WEEKEND'S STORM
SYSTEM.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
CTZ005>008.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NYZ067-068.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ002.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/DW
HYDROLOGY...JE/DW
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